Analysis of schistosomiasis prevalence in endemic areas using retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the characteristics of schistosomasis prevalence by using the spatial epidemiological method, and test the application of retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics in determining mountainous and lake-type endemic areas of schistosomiasis. Methods The data of schistosomasis in humans, cattle and snails in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2014 and in Yunnan Province during 2004-2013 were collected and analyzed. The temporal and spatial distribution of schistosomiasis endemic areas in the two provinces was analyzed with retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics. Results The prevalence of schistosomiasis in residents and Oncomelania snails showed a trend of decline in Jiangxi, from 0.21% and 0.03% in 2009 to 0.01% and zero in 2014. A similar trend was found in cattle, from 1.25% in 2012 to 0.12% in 2014. The average annual percentage change (APC) in residents was -47.36% (P < 0.05). The space-time permutation clustering analysis revealed a temporal and spatial clustering of schistosomiasis prevalence from 2009 to 2014 in residents, cattle, and snails, with 3, 2 and 1 clustering areas, respectively, all distributed in Poyang Lake Region. A similar declining trend of schistosomiasis prevalence was found in residents, snails and cattle in Yunnan during 2004-2013, from 2.49%, 0.70% and 3.76% in 2004 to no infection in residents and snails and 0.02% in cattle in 2013. The APC in residents was -49.17% (P < 0.05). There was a temporal and spatial clustering of schistosomiasis prevalence during 2004-2013 in residents, cattle, and snails, with 2, 2 and 6 clustering areas, respectively. Conclusion A declining trend of schistosomiasis prevalence is shown in lake-type endemic areas in Jiangxi during 2009-2014 and in mountainous endemic areas in Yunnan during 2004-2013. The retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics reveal a clustering of schistosomiasis in humans, cattle, and snails, suggesting its applicability in analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution of schistosomiasis.

Key words: Schistosomiasis, Endemic characteristics, Space-time permutation cluster analysis

CLC Number:

R532.21

Yu-wan HAO, Jing-bo XUE, Jun-fang XU, Fei HU, Yun ZHANG, Chun-li CAO, Yao RUAN, Tian TIAN, Li-juan ZHANG, Jing XU, Dan-dan LIN, Yi DONG, Shi-zhu LI. Analysis of schistosomiasis prevalence in endemic areas using retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF PARASITOLOGY AND PARASITIC DISEASES, 2017, 35(1): 68-0.

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组别 Group	聚集区域个数 Clustering areas no.	聚集年份 Year of clustering	聚集中心/° Clustered center/°		聚集半径/km Radius/km	聚集村数 No. village clustered	观察数 No. observed	预期数 No. expected	P值 P value
组别 Group	聚集区域个数 Clustering areas no.	聚集年份 Year of clustering	纬度 Latitude	经度 Longitude	聚集半径/km Radius/km	聚集村数 No. village clustered	观察数 No. observed	预期数 No. expected	P值 P value
江西省Jiangxi Province
人群感染率 Infection rate in humans	3	2009-2011	29.602 215	116.355 126	48.50	432	7 324	1 835.83	< 0.01
		2009-2012	28.749 241	116.491 745	33.14	385	5 817	1 956.07	< 0.01
		2009	28.382 019	115.683 968	4.17	12	96	8.91	< 0.01
耕牛感染率 Infection rate in cattle	2	2012	28.887 190	116.441 978	32.93	365	582	110.60	< 0.01
耕牛感染率 Infection rate in cattle		2012	29.272 600	115.805 360	44.87	327	280	80.37	< 0.01
钉螺感染率 Infection rate in snails	1	2009-2011	29.088 914	116.380 246	60.91	1 014	607	126.07	< 0.01
云南省Yunnan Province
人群感染率 Infection rate in humans	2	2004-2007	25.215 890	100.127 930	29.67	68	37 614	3 220.04	< 0.01
人群感染率 Infection rate in humans		2005	26.791 139	100.693 778	5.78	8	168	89.65	< 0.01
耕牛感染率 Infection rate in cattle	2	2004-2005	25.798 720	100.121 080	8.82	24	925	131.49	< 0.01
耕牛感染率 Infection rate in cattle		2006	26.322 500	99.916 110	33.02	56	1 712	624.93	< 0.01
钉螺感染率 Infection rate in snails	6	2004-2007	26.077 550	99.763 150	25.68	31	5 491	970.65	< 0.01
		2004-2006	25.026 250	100.377 420	6.98	5	524	84.48	< 0.01
		2004-2006	25.823 190	100.144 330	26.80	82	1 304	578.36	< 0.01
		2004-2006	26.500 000	100.350 000	47.92	122	1 075	466.47	< 0.01
		2004-2005	25.298 890	100.114 520	10.20	6	206	97.25	< 0.01
		2005-2006	25.516 230	100.244 730	8.80	12	106	38.22	< 0.01