Trend prediction on the detection rate of newly discovered echinococcosis patients in Sichuan Province based on ARMA and GM (1,1) models

doi:10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2021.02.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective To explore a model suitable for predicting the detection rate of newly discovered echinococcosis patients in Sichuan Province, and to provide scientific basis for formulating prevention and control strategies for echinococcosis. Methods The detection rate data of newly discovered echinococcosis patients in Sichuan Province from 2007 to 2020 were collected, and ARMA and GM (1,1) models were established respectively to predict the detection rate from 2021 to 2023. Meanwhile, the fitting and prediction effects of the two models were compared using the coefficient of determination, mean absolute error and mean-square error. Results The ARMA model was established, and the errors between fitting and actual values of detection rate in 2017—2020 were 12.44, 26.04 and 33.30, respectively. The predicted detection rates in 2021, 2022 and 2023 using this model were 50.14/100 000, 50.04/100 000 and 49.99/100 000, respectively. Uing the GM(1,1) model, the errors between fitting and actual values of detection rate in 2017—2020 were 6.51, 2.94 and -1.20, respectively, and the predicted detection rates in 2021, 2022 and 2023 were 20.55/100 000, 17.65/100 000 and 15.77/100 000, respectively. Evaluation of fitting effects showed that the GM(1,1) had better prediction performance than the ARMA model. Conclusion The GM (1,1) model can predict the detection rate of newly discovered echinococcosis patients in Sichuan Province. Although the predicted detection rate show a trend of decrease, new cases are continuously being detected. Therefore, measures should be taken to strength prevention and control of echinococcosis and consolidate the achievements of disease control.

Key words: Sichuan Province, Echinococcosis, ARMA model, GM (1,1) model, Prediction

CLC Number:

R532.32

HE Wei, WANG Qi, YU Wen-jie, HUANG Yan, ZHANG Guang-jia, LIAO Sha, YANG Liu, YAO Ren-xin, LI Rui-rui, LIU Yang, ZHONG Bo, WANG Qian. Trend prediction on the detection rate of newly discovered echinococcosis patients in Sichuan Province based on ARMA and GM (1,1) models[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF PARASITOLOGY AND PARASITIC DISEASES, 2021, 39(2): 185-190.

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References 21

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滞后阶数 Lag order	自相关系数ACF	偏自相关系数 PACF	Q统计量 Q-statistic	相伴概率Associated probability
1	0.546	0.546	5.134	0.023
2	0.221	-0.109	6.049	0.049
3	0.028	-0.067	6.065	0.108
4	-0.022	0.019	6.076	0.194
5	-0.036	-0.021	6.109	0.296
6	-0.099	-0.105	6.385	0.381
7	-0.112	-0.014	6.784	0.452
8	-0.149	-0.093	7.609	0.473
9	-0.158	-0.060	8.732	0.462
10	-0.196	-0.114	10.875	0.367
11	-0.208	-0.082	14.110	0.227
12	-0.190	-0.069	18.156	0.111

变量 Variable	参数估计值 Coefficient	标准误 Std. error	t值 t value	P值 P value
C	49.95 308	22.49 594	2.220 537	0.050 6
AR(1)	0.498 450	0.037 509	13.28 876	0.000 0
MA(1)	-0.997 435	0.202 845	-4.917 227	0.000 6

滞后阶数Lag order	自相关系数ACF	偏自相关系数PACF	Q统计量 Q-statistic	相伴概率Associated probability
1	0.216	0.216	0.758	-
2	-0.037	-0.088	0.782	-
3	-0.048	-0.022	0.828	0.363
4	-0.154	-0.149	1.342	0.511
5	-0.215	-0.164	2.467	0.481
6	-0.266	-0.227	4.432	0.351
7	-0.068	-0.012	4.581	0.469
8	-0.040	-0.109	4.642	0.590
9	0.072	0.032	4.897	0.673
10	0.060	-0.081	5.133	0.743
11	-0.016	-0.118	5.158	0.820
12	-0.005	-0.092	5.163	0.880

年份 Year	实际值/（10万）^-1 Actual value/ 100 000^-1	拟合值/（10万）^-1 Fitted value/ 100 000^-1	误差 Error	相对误差/% Relative error /%
ARMA(1,1)模型 ARMA(1,1) model
2007	2 679.18	-	-	-
2008	1 645.43	1 615.82	-29.61	-1.80
2009	874.01	830.46	-43.55	-4.98
2010	302.02	439.00	136.98	45.35
2011	175.16	243.87	68.71	39.23
2012	262.74	146.61	-116.13	-44.20
2013	98.81	98.13	-0.68	-0.69
2014	141.15	73.97	-67.18	-47.59
2015	70.59	61.92	-8.67	-12.28
2016	113.30	55.92	-57.38	-50.64
2017	41.86	52.93	11.07	26.45
2018	39.00	51.44	12.44	31.90
2019	24.65	50.69	26.04	105.64
2020	17.02	50.32	33.30	195.65
2021	-	50.14	-	-
2022	-	50.04	-	-
2023	-	49.99	-	-
GM(1,1)模型 GM(1,1) model
2007	2 679.18	-	-	-
2008	1 645.43	1 504.12	21.31	1.30
2009	874.01	888.32	-14.31	-1.64
2010	302.02	524.63	-22.61	-7.49
2011	175.16	309.84	-34.68	-19.80
2012	262.74	222.07	40.67	15.48
2013	98.81	126.10	-27.29	-27.62
2014	141.15	150.96	-9.81	-6.95
2015	70.59	101.58	-30.99	-43.90
2016	113.30	99.16	14.14	12.48
2017	41.86	36.57	5.29	12.64
2018	39.00	32.49	6.51	16.69
2019	24.65	21.71	2.94	11.93
2020	17.02	18.22	-1.20	-7.05
2021	-	20.55	-	-
2022	-	17.65	-	-
2023	-	15.77	-	-

模型 Model	拟合效果评价Evaluation of fitting effect
模型 Model	判定系数R² coefficient of determination R²	平均绝对误差MAE	均方误差 MSE
ARMA(1,1)模型 ARMA (1,1) model	0.97	47.06	3 822.28
GM(1,1)模型 GM(1,1) model	0.98	17.83	469.89