Analysis on the sources of imported malaria risk in China based on international trade relations

doi:10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2023.06.012

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective To explore the cross-border population mobility between China and malaria-endemic countries worldwide under normal conditions and evaluate the risk sources of imported malaria in China to provide a methodological basis for proactive surveillance and early warning of imported malaria. Methods Malaria prevalence data from global 81 malaria-endemic countries in 2019, the data of Chinese customs import and export of goods, and relevant social, economic, and demographic data were collected to constructe gravity model for cross-border population mobility driven by international trade relations, and assess the risk classification of imported malaria from malaria-endemic countries worldwide. Results The 81 malaria-endemic countries are mainly located in Africa (45 countries, accounting for 55.56%) and Asia (17 countries, accounting for 20.99%). Countries with high malaria endemicity are primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. China has trade relationships with all the malaria-endemic countries, accounting for 31.03% of the total trade volume. The model analysis shows that the primary imported malaria risk from countries in central and eastern Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and central-east Latin America. The risk of imported malaria from southern Latin America and Oceania is relatively low. Among the 81 malaria-endemic countries, the three countries with the highest risk of imported malaria to China are India in South Asia, Brazil in South America, and Nigeria in Africa. Conclusion As international exchanges and personnel mobility return to normal, the malaria-endemic countries in central and southern regions of Africa, midwestern Latin America and Southeast Asian are high risk source of imported malaria, thus, it is imperative to exert focusing surveillance and preventive control for the inbound personnel from these risk-regions.

Key words: Imported malaria, Population movement, International trade, Risk assessment

CLC Number:

R531.3

YANG Shuo, XIA Shang, YAN Shuning, XUE Jingbo, SHI Benyun, HAO Yuwan, LI Mengru, LIANG Jiarui, XIA Zhigui, ZHENG Bin. Analysis on the sources of imported malaria risk in China based on international trade relations[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF PARASITOLOGY AND PARASITIC DISEASES, 2023, 41(6): 744-748.

Figures/Tables 2

Table 1

Indigenous malaria prevalence in malaria-endemic countries globally in 2020

发病率/十万^-1 Incidence rate/100 000^-1	非洲 Africa	亚洲 Asia	拉丁美洲 Latin America	大洋洲 Oceania
> 1 000	布隆迪 Burundi、中非 Central Africa、莫桑比克 Mozambique、乌干达 Uganda、塞拉利昂 Sierra Leone、布基纳法索 Burkina Faso、赞比亚 Zambia、卢旺达 Rwanda、马拉维 Malawi、刚果（金）Democratic Republic of the Congo、贝宁 Benin、科特迪瓦 Ivory Coast、安哥拉 Angola、加纳 Ghana、利比里亚 Liberia、南苏丹 South Sudan、几内亚 Guinea、马里 Mali、尼日尔 Niger、喀麦隆 Cameroon、乍得 Chad、坦桑尼亚 Tanzania	无 None	无 None	所罗门群岛Solomon Islands
> 100	尼日利亚 Nigeria、肯尼亚 Kenya、几内亚比绍 Guinea-Bissau、吉布提 Djibouti、苏丹 Sudan、马达加斯加 Madagascar、厄立特里亚 Eritrea、加蓬 Gabon、冈比亚 Gambia、刚果（布）Republic of the Congo、塞内加尔 Senegal、津巴布韦 Zimbabwe、科摩罗斯 Comoros、赤道几内亚 Equatorial Guinea、圣多美和普林西比 São Tomé and Príncipe	无 None	圭亚那 Guyana、委内瑞拉 Venezuela	巴布亚新几内亚 Papua New Guinea
> 1	埃塞俄比亚 Ethiopia、毛里塔尼亚 Mauritania、索马里 Somalia、纳米比亚 Namibia、斯威士兰 Swaziland	也门 Yemen、阿富汗 Afghanistan、柬埔寨 Cambodian、巴基斯坦 Pakistan、缅甸 Myanmar 、老挝 Laos、印度尼西亚Indonesia、印度 India、孟加拉国 Bangladesh	尼加拉瓜 Nicaragua、哥伦比亚 Columbia、海地 Haiti、玻利维亚 Bolivia、秘鲁 Peru、巴西 Brazil、巴拿马 Panama、苏里南 Suriname、多米尼克 Dominican Republic、危地马拉 Guatemala、厄瓜多尔 Ecuador	瓦努阿图 Vanuatu
< 1	博茨瓦纳 Botswana、南非 South Africa	朝鲜 North Korea、菲律宾 Philippine、泰国 Thailand、越南 Vietnam、韩国 South Korea、尼泊尔 Nepali、不丹 Bhutan、沙特阿拉伯 Saudi Arabia	洪都拉斯 Honduras、哥斯达黎加 Costa Rica、墨西哥 Mexico	无 None

Table 1

Table 2

Risk classification of imported malaria in China from malaria-endemic countries

风险等级 Risk level	非洲 Africa	亚洲 Asia	拉丁美洲 Latin America	大洋洲 Oceania
高风险 High	尼日利亚 Nigeria、安哥拉 Angola、刚果（金）Democratic Republic of the Congo、加纳 Ghana、肯尼亚 Kenya、坦桑尼亚 Tanzania、赞比亚 Zambia、科特迪瓦 Ivory Coast、莫桑比克 Mozambique、乌干达 Uganda、喀麦隆 Cameroon、几内亚 Guinea、贝宁 Benin、汤加 Tonga、苏丹 Sudan	印度 India、印度尼西亚 Indonesia、巴基斯坦 Pakistan	巴西 Brazil、委内瑞拉 Venezuela	巴布亚新几内亚 Papua New Guinea
中高风险 Middle high	南苏丹 South Sudan、利比里亚 Liberia、埃塞俄比亚 Ethiopia、马里 Mali、布基纳法索 Burkina Faso、尼日尔 Niger、刚果（布）Republic of the Congo、马拉维 Malawi、塞内加尔 Senegal、乍得 Chad、卢旺达 Rwanda、马达加斯加 Madagascar、塞拉利昂 Sierra Leone、加蓬 Gabon	缅甸 Myanmar 、越南 Vietnam、泰国 Thailand、韩国 South Korea、菲律宾 Philippine	哥伦比亚 Columbia、秘鲁 Peru	无 None
中低风险 Middle low	津巴布韦 Zimbabwe、布隆迪 Burundi、南非 South Africa、吉布提 Djibouti、赤道几内亚 Equatorial Guinea、中非 Central Africa、毛里塔尼亚 Mauritania、冈比亚 Gambia、厄立特里亚 Eritrea	也门 Yemen、孟加拉国 Bangladesh、柬埔寨 Cambodian、阿富汗 Afghanistan、老挝 Laos	墨西哥 Mexico、巴拿马 Panama、厄瓜多尔 Ecuador、玻利维亚 Bolivia	所罗门群岛 Solomon Islands
低风险 Low	索马里 Somalia、几内亚比绍 Guinea-Bissau、纳米比亚 Namibia、科摩罗斯 Comoros、博茨瓦纳 Botswana、圣多美和普林西比 São Tomé and Príncipe、斯威士兰 Swaziland	沙特阿拉伯 Saudi Arabia、朝鲜 North Korea、尼泊尔 Nepali、不丹 Bhutan	圭亚那 Guyana、危地马拉 Guatemala、多米尼克 Dominican Republic、尼加拉瓜 Nicaragua、海地 Haiti、哥斯达黎加 Costa Rica、洪都拉斯 Honduras、苏里南 Suriname	瓦努阿图 Vanuatu

Table 2

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