Abstract: 　Objective To analyze factors affecting transmission of schistosomiasis japonica in Poyang Lake. Methods Successive surveillance data for at least three years from 1992 to 1998 at the schistosomiasis endemic administrative villages surrounding Poyang Lake were collected, including the egg positive rate by stool examination, investment on treatment of patients and mollusciciding in snail habitat, risk areas, bovine infection rate. Data on rainfall and temperature were also obtained from the relevant agencies. Step-wised regression method was employed to analyze the data. Results The regression model established is statistically significant, R2 equals 0. 735, P < 0. 01. The accepted variables affecting the transmission of the disease were natural logarithm of human infection rate in last year, risk areas, infection rate of bovine, investment values of niclosamide per risk area and value of praziquantel administered per infection rate. Conclusion Chemotherapy and mollusciciding effectively reduced schistosomiasis transmission in Poyang lake region, while the infection rate, risk areas, bovine infection rate still drive the transmission.

Key words: schistosomiasis japonica, multivariate regression analysis, transmission