Detection of schistosomiasis transmission risks in Yunnan Province based on ecological niche modeling

doi:10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2020.01.012

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To predict the transmission risks of schistosomiasis based on ecological niche modeling and identify high-risk areas, in order to provide scientific evidence for the formulation of monitoring and control measures in Yunnan Province. Methods Village-level schistosomiasis epidemic data and 13 environmental variables such as climatic, geographical and socioeconomic factors were collected from 18 endemic counties in Yunnan Province from 2004 to 2015. BIOCLIM, DOMAIN and MaxEnt models were used to predict the schistosomiasis transmission risks in Yunnan Province, and the accuracy of prediction was assessed with the receiver operating characteristic area under curve (AUC). The model with best performance was used to analyze the importance of environmental variables and predict the distributions of schistosomiasis transmission risks in Yunnan Province. Results All the three models had good performance in predicting the distributions of schistosomiasis transmission risks in Yunnan Province, with the MaxEnt model having the highest prediction accuracy (AUC, 0.96 ± 0.01), followed by DOMAIN (AUC, 0.93 ± 0.04) and BIOCLIM (AUC, 0.88 ± 0.01) (P < 0.05 among three). The MaxEnt model revealed the annual average precipitation as the most significant environmental factor influencing the distributions of schistosomiasis (contribution value, 1.52), followed by gross domestic product and population density (contribution values 1.06 and 1.03, respectively). As predicted by the MaxEnt model, the transmission risk area, which was located mainly in the northwest, accounted for 3.1% of the area of Yunnan Province, comprising 2.7% of middle- and low-risk areas and 0.4% of high-risk areas. The high-risk areas were mainly distributed in northern Heqing County, eastern Eryuan County, central Dali City, northeastern Weishan County and northern Midu County. Conclusion It is feasible to predict distributions of schistosomiasis transmission risks based on the MaxEnt model. There still remain risks of schistosomiasis transmission in Yunnan Province, and the distributions of high-risk regions show a pattern of clustering. Therefore, targeted monitoring and control is needed.

Key words: Ecological niche modeling, Schistosomiasis, Transmission risk

CLC Number:

R532.21

HU Xiao-kang, HAO Yu-wan, XIA Shang, GUO Yun-hai, XUE Jing-bo, ZHANG Yun, WANG Li-fang, DONG Yi, XU Jing, LI Shi-zhu. Detection of schistosomiasis transmission risks in Yunnan Province based on ecological niche modeling[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF PARASITOLOGY AND PARASITIC DISEASES, 2020, 38(1): 80-87.

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