我国广州管圆线虫病流行病学研究进展——生态学模型

doi:10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2026.04.018

中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志 ›› 2026, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (4): 579-586.doi: 10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2026.04.018

我国广州管圆线虫病流行病学研究进展——生态学模型

朱泽林()(), 郭云海, 秦志强, 郝瑜婉, 田添, 陈怡君, 夏尚, 陈木新, 李石柱, 周晓农^*()()

中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所（国家热带病研究中心），传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室，国家卫生健康委员会寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室，世界卫生组织热带病合作中心，科技部国家级热带病国际联合研究中心，上海 200025

收稿日期:2025-10-31 修回日期:2026-06-11 出版日期:2026-08-30 发布日期:2026-08-21
通讯作者: * 周晓农（ORCID：0000-0003-1417-8427），男，博士，研究员，从事寄生虫病空间流行病学、血吸虫病流行病学、钉螺生物学、寄生虫与宿主间相互关系等研究。E-mail：zhouxn1@chinacdc.cn
作者简介:朱泽林（ORCID：0000-0002-7823-1920），男，硕士，副研究员, 从事流行病与卫生统计学研究。E-mail：zhuzl@nipd.chinacdc.cn
作者贡献
朱泽林、郭云海、秦志强、郝瑜婉、田添、陈怡君、夏尚、陈木新负责文献查阅、论文撰写，李石柱、周晓农负责论文修改。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2300800);国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2300804);上海市第五轮三年公共卫生行动计划(GWV-10.1-XK13)

Advances in the epidemiological studies of angiostrongyliasis in China: ecological models

ZHU Zelin()(), GUO Yunhai, Qin Zhiqiang, HAO Yuwan, TIAN Tian, CHEN Yijun, XIA Shang, CHEN Muxin, LI Shizhu, ZHOU Xiaonong^*()()

National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research; National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases; NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology; WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Ministry of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200025, China

Received:2025-10-31 Revised:2026-06-11 Online:2026-08-30 Published:2026-08-21
Contact: * E-mail: zhouxn1@chinacdc.cn
Supported by:
National Key Research and Development Program of China(2021YFC2300800);National Key Research and Development Program of China(2021YFC2300804);Fifth Round of Shanghai Three-Year Public Health Action Plan(GWV-10.1-XK13)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

广州管圆线虫病是一种被忽视的食源性人兽共患寄生虫病，潜在的公共卫生风险突出。当前研究多集中于病原、诊断等领域，生态学模型研究尚处于起步阶段。本文结合广州管圆线虫病流行病学特征，介绍4种常用生态学模型在该病研究中的应用、优势与局限。后续结合系统动力学构建广州管圆线虫病的传播动力学模型，依托跨学科协作完善研究，为该病的精准防控提供科学依据。

关键词: 广州管圆线虫, 广州管圆线虫病, 流行病学, 传播动力学, 生态学模型

Abstract:

Angiostrongyliasis is a neglected food-borne zoonotic parasitic disease with a prominent potential threat to public health. Current researches have primarily focused on pathogens and diagnosis of angiostrongyliasis, whereas studies on ecological models are still at initial stages. Based on epidemiological characteristics of angiostrongyliasis, this review describes the applications, strengths, and limitations of four common ecological models in angiostrongyliasis research. Subsequently, transmission dynamics models have been developed for angiostrongyliasis based on system dynamics, and interdisciplinary collaborations are recommended to refine future research, so as to provide insights into precise control of angiostrongyliasis.

Key words: Angiostrongylus cantonensis, Angiostrongyliasis, Epidemiology, Transmission dynamics, Ecological model

中图分类号:

R532.1

朱泽林, 郭云海, 秦志强, 郝瑜婉, 田添, 陈怡君, 夏尚, 陈木新, 李石柱, 周晓农. 我国广州管圆线虫病流行病学研究进展——生态学模型[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2026, 44(4): 579-586.

ZHU Zelin, GUO Yunhai, Qin Zhiqiang, HAO Yuwan, TIAN Tian, CHEN Yijun, XIA Shang, CHEN Muxin, LI Shizhu, ZHOU Xiaonong. Advances in the epidemiological studies of angiostrongyliasis in China: ecological models[J]. Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases, 2026, 44(4): 579-586.

图/表 1

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模型类型	核心特征	应用领域	优势	局限性	实际应用
生态位模型	预测物种的潜在适生区	疫情风险预警、分布预测	宏观预测能力强，适用于大尺度空间规划	对局部生态细节捕捉不足，依赖环境变量准确性，忽略了生物性变量	已应用于广州管圆线虫病研究领域
空间统计模型	分析感染数据的空间分布特征、聚集性和异质性	识别热点区域、追踪传播路径、评估防控效果	能揭示空间依赖性和异质性，直观展示空间格局	对数据质量和完整性要求高，解释因果关系需谨慎	已应用于广州管圆线虫病研究领域
传播动力学模型	模拟病原体在宿主种群内及之间的传播过程和关键参数	评估干预措施效果、揭示流行规律、预测疫情趋势	能模拟动态过程，机制性强，便于进行理论实验和干预模拟	参数获取难度大，模型复杂，简化假设可能影响预测精度	未来可应用于广州管圆线虫病研究领域
种群动态模型	研究中间宿主、终宿主种群数量变化及其与环境因子的关系	评估宿主控制策略、理解长期波动规律	有助于理解种群水平的驱动因素和抑制机制	多专注于单一物种，难以整合到疾病传播全链条中	不适合应用于广州管圆线虫病研究领域

我国广州管圆线虫病流行病学研究进展——生态学模型

Advances in the epidemiological studies of angiostrongyliasis in China: ecological models

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