关键词: 棘球蚴病, 宁夏, 流行病学特征, 空间自相关

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the changing trend of echinococcosis in Ningxia from 2005 to 2024 and provide a reference for the comprehensive prevention and control of echinococcosis in Ningxia. Methods The reported cases of echinococcosis in Ningxia from 2005 to 2024 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, and the population data were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics website. Descriptive statistical analysis was conducted using SPSS 26.0, and spatial distribution and spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed using ArcGIS 10.8 software. The Moran’s I index was used to evaluate spatial clustering, and a heat map was used to visualize the number of cases among children aged 6-12 years in each county over the years. Results A total of 4 705 cases of echinococcosis were reported in Ningxia from 2005 to 2024, the average annual incidence rate is 3.57 per 100 000. Cases were reported every year, with the highest number of cases in 2009 [accounting for 11.2% （528/4 705）], and a decreasing trend was observed after 2009. Cases were reported every month, but the distribution was uneven, with the highest number of cases in March (515 cases) and the lowest in September (282 cases). The cases were mainly distributed in Guyuan City (29.7%, 1 396/4 705), Zhongwei City (28.3%, 1 332/4 705), and Wuzhong City (24.3%, 1 145/4 705), accounting for 82.3% (3 873/4 705) of the total cases. There was a statistically significant difference in the average annual incidence rate among different cities (χ² = 18 918.778, P < 0.01). The spatial distribution showed that cases were distributed in all counties and districts of Ningxia, with an average annual incidence rate ranging from 0.38 to 9.01 per 100 000. The highest incidence rate was in Haiyuan County in the south (9.01 per 100 000), and the overall pattern was “high in the south and low in the north”. The global autocorrelation Moran’s I = 0.38 (Z = 2.82, P < 0.01), indicating significant clustering. The local autocorrelation analysis found that the high-high clustering area was located in the southern Yuanzhou District, and the low-low clustering area was concentrated in some counties in the north. The hotspots were mainly located in Haiyuan County and Yuanzhou District. The male-to-female ratio of cases was 1:1.15, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 3.17 per 100 000 for males and 3.81 per 100 000 for females. There was a statistically significant difference in the average annual reported incidence rate between different genders (χ² = 39.815, P < 0.01). The cases were mainly concentrated in the age group of 30-69 years, accounting for 73.0%. There was a statistically significant difference in the incidence rate among different age groups (χ² = 3 008.457, P < 0.01). A total of 24 cases among children aged 6-12 years were reported from 2005 to 2024. The majority of the cases were farmers, accounting for 79.5% (3 740/4 705). Conclusion From 2005 to 2024, the number of reported cases of echinococcosis in Ningxia reached a peak in 2009 and has been decreasing year by year since then. The incidence of echinococcosis in Ningxia presented a spatial pattern of higher in the south and lower in the north, with statistically significant spatial aggregation. There were also notable differences in its distribution across gender and age groups, and pediatric cases still persist in the region.

Key words: Echinococcosis, Ningxia, Epidemiological characteristics, Spatial autocorrelation