2005—2024年宁夏回族自治区西吉县多房棘球蚴病时空分布特征分析

doi:10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2025.06.003

中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志 ›› 2025, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6): 757-765.doi: 10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2025.06.003

2005—2024年宁夏回族自治区西吉县多房棘球蚴病时空分布特征分析

鲜玉英¹(), 田慧芳¹, 伏卫程¹, 闫芳², 薛垂召³, 王莹³, 吴向林²^,^*()(), 王旭³^,^*()()

¹ 西吉县疾病预防控制中心，宁夏固原 756200
² 宁夏回族自治区疾病预防控制中心，宁夏银川 750011
³ 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所（国家热带病研究中心），传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室，国家卫生健康委员会寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室，世界卫生组织热带病合作中心，科技部国家级热带病国际联合研究中心，上海 200025

收稿日期:2025-08-20 修回日期:2025-10-30 出版日期:2025-12-30 发布日期:2025-12-29
通讯作者: *王旭（ORCID：0000-0002-5193-9697），男，博士，副研究员，从事寄生虫生物学和寄生虫病流行病学研究。E-mail：wangxu@nipd.chinacdc.cn；吴向林（ORCID：0000-0003-0428-1869），男，本科，主任医师，从事寄生虫病预防控制与研究。E-mail：545126419@qq.com
作者简介:鲜玉英，女，本科，副主任医师，从事疾病预防控制研究。E-mail：13995343258@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(82404325)

Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of alveolar echinococcosis in Xiji County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, 2005-2024

XIAN Yuying¹(), TIAN Huifang¹, FU Weicheng¹, YAN Fang², XUE Chuizhao³, WANG Ying³, WU Xianglin²^,^*()(), WANG Xu³^,^*()()

¹ Xiji County Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guyuan 756200, Ningxia, China
² Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yinchuan 750011, Ningxia, China
³ National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research; National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases; Key Laboratory on Parasite and Vector Biology, Ministry of Health; WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Ministry of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200025, China

Received:2025-08-20 Revised:2025-10-30 Online:2025-12-30 Published:2025-12-29
Contact: *E-mail: wangxu@nipd.chinacdc.cn;545126419@qq.com
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(82404325)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的深入解析西吉县人群多房棘球蚴病（AE）的时空分布格局及其潜在影响因素，为制定精准防控策略提供科学依据。方法收集西吉县2005—2024年AE病例数据，采用热图可视化各乡镇历年病例数，利用Joinpoint回归模型分析人群发病率时间趋势，计算年度变化百分比（APC）和平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）；使用R语言函数包计算并绘制人群患病率的年度变化趋势；运用ArcGIS进行空间可视化、全局和局部Moran’s I空间自相关分析，并利用SaTScan进行时空扫描分析识别聚集区；提取村级行政单元植被群系数据，构建多因素Logistic回归模型分析植被群系面积与村级单元AE病例发生的关联性。结果 2005—2024年西吉县累计发现AE病例325例，年均发病率为4.03/10万。2007年发现病例数最多（120例，36.92%）、发病率最高（33.87/10万）。近15年（2010—2024年）的年均发病率呈显著下降趋势（AAPC = -13.27%，P < 0.01）。西吉县年均发病率在空间上呈北部高、南部低的不均匀分布，北部的新营乡年均发病率最高（31.64/10万）。时空扫描分析识别出新营乡、白崖乡和火石寨乡（2007—2009年）为主要聚集区域（RR = 30.90，LLR = 288.76，P < 0.01）。2013—2024年西吉县患病率由89.29/10万下降至17.10/10万，呈现显著的下降趋势（Z = -21.98，P < 0.01）。全县34.09%（105/308）的村级行政单元有AE病例，新营乡（95.45%，21/22）和白崖乡（13/14）内有AE病例的村级行政单元占比较高。Logistic回归分析表明，长芒草草原、农作物和茭蒿-禾草草原面积与村级单元AE发病风险呈正相关（OR = 1.32、1.12、1.44，均P < 0.05）。结论西吉县AE流行呈现北部高发、时空聚集显著、近15年整体下降的特征，关键植被群系通过影响啮齿类动物宿主栖息地与人类活动环境暴露，提升了AE流行风险。尽管综合防控策略显著降低了西吉县AE发病率和患病率，但传播风险持续存在。

关键词: 棘球蚴病, 多房棘球绦虫, 流行病学, 宁夏, 西吉

Abstract:

Objective To comprehensively analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of human alveolar echinococcosis (AE) in Xiji County and to identify underlying environmental factors, thereby providing a scientific basis for targeted prevention and control strategies. Methdos Surveillance data on human AE case in Xiji County (2005-2024) were collected. The annual number of cases by township was visualized using heatmaps. Joinpoint regression models were utilized to analyze temporal trends in incidence rates, calculating the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC). R language packages were used to compute and plot the trends in annual prevalence rates. ArcGIS was employed for spatial visualization, global and local Moran’s I index analyses to assess spatial autocorrelation, and SaTScan was performed for space-time scan analysis to identify spatiotemporal clusters. A multivariable logistic regression model were constructed to analyze the association between plant formation area and AE occurrence at the village level. Results A total of 325 human AE cases were identified in Xiji County over the 20-year period, with the peak incidence rate occurring in 2007 (33.87/100 000). The incidence rate has shown a significant downward trend (AAPC = -13.27%, P < 0.01) in the past 15 years, and the prevalence rate of AE also showed a consistent decline (Z = -21.98, P < 0.01) from 2015 to 2024. The average annual incidence (countywide: 4.03/100 000) showed an uneven geographical distribution: higher in northern townships (Xinying: 31.64/100 000; Baiya: 30.63/100 000) and lower in the south. Spatiotemporal scan analysis identified a significant primary cluster encompassing Xinying, Baiya, and Huoshizhai townships for the period 2007-2009 (RR = 30.90, LLR = 288.76, P < 0.01). Cases were reported in 34.09% of all villages/communities, with exceptionally high endemic village proportions within Xinying (95.45%) and Baiya (92.86%) townships. Logistic regression revealed that increased area coverage of Stipa bungeana steppe, cropland, and Artemisia giraldii-grass steppe significantly elevated the AE risk at the village level (OR = 1.32, 1.12, 1.44; all P < 0.05). Conclusion The AE epidemic in Xiji County is characterized by a historically high burden in the north, significant spatiotemporal clustering, and a marked overall decline over the past 15 years. Key vegetation biomes are significant risk factors, elevating AE risk by shaping suitable habitats for rodent intermediate hosts and influencing human exposure activities. Although comprehensive control strategies have significantly reduced the AE incidence and prevalence rates in Xiji County, persistent transmission risks remain.

Key words: Echinococcosis, Echinococcus multilocatus, Epidemiology, Ningxia, Xiji

中图分类号:

R532.32

鲜玉英, 田慧芳, 伏卫程, 闫芳, 薛垂召, 王莹, 吴向林, 王旭. 2005—2024年宁夏回族自治区西吉县多房棘球蚴病时空分布特征分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2025, 43(6): 757-765.

XIAN Yuying, TIAN Huifang, FU Weicheng, YAN Fang, XUE Chuizhao, WANG Ying, WU Xianglin, WANG Xu. Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of alveolar echinococcosis in Xiji County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, 2005-2024[J]. Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases, 2025, 43(6): 757-765.

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变量x Variable x	回归系数β Regression coefficient β	标准差 Standard deviation	Wald χ²统计量 Wald χ² statistic	P值 P value	优势比（95%置信区间） OR (95%CI)
长芒草草原 Stipa bungeana steppe	0.28	0.06	19.24	< 0.01	1.32 (1.17~1.50)
春（冬）小麦、谷子、糜子、苜蓿、甜瓜田；苹果、核桃园 Spring (winter) wheat, millet, panic, lucerne; musk melon field; apple, walnut orchard	0.11	0.04	10.47	< 0.01	1.12 (1.05~1.20)
茭蒿、禾草草原 Artemisia giraldii, grass steppe	0.36	0.17	4.7	< 0.05	1.44 (1.04~2.00)
截距 Intercept	-1.99	0.34	35.06	< 0.01	0.14 (0.07~0.27)

2005—2024年宁夏回族自治区西吉县多房棘球蚴病时空分布特征分析

Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of alveolar echinococcosis in Xiji County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, 2005-2024

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