关键词: 棘球蚴病, 流行病学, 空间格局, 新疆

Abstract:

Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution characteristics of echinococcosis in Xinjiang in 2023, so as to provide insights into formulation of the echinococcosis control strategy. Methods All data pertaining to newly reported echinococcosis cases in Xinjiang in 2023 were captured from the National Notifiable Diseases Reporting System. All statistical analyses were performed with the software Microsoft Excel 2016, and the three-dimension (3D) trend map of newly reported echinococcosis cases was plotted with the software ArcGIS 10.8 to analyze the trends in spatial distribution of newly reported echinococcosis cases. The cold and hot spot maps were plotted based on the spatial relationships of individual case data, in order to analyze the cluster pattern of newly reported echinococcosis cases in different geographical locations, and the cold and hot spots of echinococcosis were predicted with the inverse distance interpolation approach in Xinjiang in 2023 based on cold and hot spot analyses, to project potential high-risk areas across Xinjiang in the future. Results Total of 958 newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases were reported in Xinjiang in 2023, and these cases were reported across 14 prefectures (cities) in Xinjiang, with the highest number of reported cases in Ili Prefecture (309 cases, accounting for 32.25% of all cases). There were 506 male cases (52.82%) and 452 female cases (47.18%), and the cases had a mean age of 45.0 (20.0, 56.0) years (range 2 to 99 years), with high proportion at ages of 6 to 11 years (10.54%, 101/958), 12 to 17 years (10.86%, 104/958) and 48 to 53 years (14.41%, 138/958). Farmer and herdsman were the predominant occupation (46.66%, 447/958). Descriptive spatial analysis showed that the average number of newly reported echinococcosis cases was 6.0 (2.0, 13.5) across 96 counties (cities) in Xinjiang, and the number of newly reported echinococcosis cases a tendency towards a rise followed by a reduction from west to east, and a gradual increase from south to north. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed a spatial autocorrelation of echinococcosis in Xinjiang in 2023 (Moran’s I = 0.028, Z = 2.584, P < 0.05), indicating a spatial cluster. Cold and hot spot analyses showed high numbers of newly reported echinococcosis cases in northern Xinjiang, where high-value clusters were found in multiple districts (counties), indicating high-spot areas of echinococcosis, while a few newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases were reported in southern Xinjiang, where low-value clusters were predominant, indicating cold-spot areas. Conclusion There is a spatial cluster of echinococcosis in Xinjiang and the number of newly reported echinococcosis cases is overall higher in northern Xinjiang than in southern Xinjiang. The southwestern part of northern Xinjiang is hot-spot areas of echinococcosis, and the number of echinococcosis cases, centered in the southwestern part of northern Xinjiang, and then radiates towards the southeastern part. These areas should be given a high priority for echinococcosis control.

Key words: Echinococcosis, Epidemiology, Spatial pattern, Xinjiang