Time-series anaylsis of malaria incidence in China during 2004-2013

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective To estimate the trend of malaria incidence in China from 2004 to 2013 and clarify the pattern of malaria prevalence. Methods The malaria incidence trend during 2004-2013 was analyzed with the Joinpoint software to calculate the annual percent change (APC). Grey relational analysis was also performed. Results The joinpoint for the overall prevalence of malaria was found in 2006, with APC of 34.8% (P > 0.05) and -37.9%(P < 0.05), respectively. The joinpoint for vivax malaria was found in 2007, with APC of 14.7% (P < 0.05) and -51.5% (P < 0.05), respectively. The joinpoint for falciparum malaria was in 2009, with APC of -39.6% (P < 0.05) and -25.9% (P > 0.05), respectively. The joinpoint for unclassified malaria was in 2006, with APC of 31.7% (P > 0.05) and -40.7% (P < 0.05), respectively. The comprehensive correlation degrees of vivax malaria, falciparum malaria and unclassified malaria incidence with the overall prevalence of 0.887 7, 0.625 4, and 0.844 5, respectively. The joinpoint for indigenous malaria incidence was in 2008, with APC of 2.43% （P > 0.05) and -72.89% (P < 0.05), respectively. The comprehensive correlation degree between indigenous malaria incidence and the overall prevalence was 0.969 3. Conclusion There is a trend of decrease for overall prevalence, as well as for the incidences of indigenous malaria, vivax malaria, and unclassified malaria. The incidence of falciparum malaria was a trend of decrease from 2004 to 2009, but was steady from 2009 to 2013.

Key words: Malaria, Time-series analysis, Joinpoint model

CLC Number:

R531.3

XU Jun-fang, XIA Zhi-gui, ZHOU Xiao-nong, LI Shi-zhu, GUO Xiao-peng, QIN Si. Time-series anaylsis of malaria incidence in China during 2004-2013[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF PARASITOLOGY AND PARASITIC DISEASES, 2017, 35(2): 114-119.

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疟疾类型 Malaria type	联接点Joinpoint			APC值/% APC value/%	APC 95% CI/%		t值 t value	P值 P value
疟疾类型 Malaria type	时间段Period	下接点Upper	上接点Lower	APC值/% APC value/%	下Down	上Up	t值 t value	P值 P value
间日疟Vivax malaria	1	2004	2007	14.7	1.5	29.6	2.9	0.0
	2	2007	2013	-51.5	-57.6	-44.5	-13.8	0.0
恶性疟Falciparum malaria	1	2004	2009	-26.3	-39.6	-10.1	-3.9	0.0
	2	2009	2013	25.9	-5.9	68.3	2.0	0.1
未分型Uncassified	1	2004	2006	31.7	-17.0	109.0	1.5	0.2
	2	2006	2013	-40.7	-50.0	-29.6	-7.8	0.0
合计Total	1	2004	2006	34.8	-15.1	113.9	1.7	0.2
合计Total	2	2006	2013	-37.9	-45.2	-29.5	-9.7	0.0

疟疾类型 Malaria type	联接点Joinpoint			APC值/% APC value	APC 95% CI/%		检验t值 t value	P值 P value
疟疾类型 Malaria type	时间段Period	下接点Upper	上接点Lower	APC值/% APC value	下Down	上Up	检验t值 t value	P值 P value
本地疟疾	1	2004	2008	2.4	-25.8	41.5	0.2	0.9
Local malaria	2	2008	2013	-72.9	-78.4	-65.9	-14.7	0.0

疟疾类型 Malaria typ	相对关联度 Relative relationship degree	绝对关联度 Absolute correlation degree	综合关联度 Comprehensive correlation degree
间日疟Vivax malaria	0.955 4	0.836 3	0.895 9
恶性疟falciparum malaria	0.891 9	0.586 4	0.739 1
未分型Unclassified	0.909 0	0.629 5	0.769 3