基于生态位模型预测我国黄土高原延伸带内脏利什曼病的传播风险

doi:10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2021.02.015

中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志 ›› 2021, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (2): 218-225.doi: 10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2021.02.015

基于生态位模型预测我国黄土高原延伸带内脏利什曼病的传播风险

公衍峰¹(), 胡小康¹, 周正斌¹, 朱慧慧¹, 郝瑜婉¹, 王强¹, 张仪¹, 李石柱¹^,²^,^*()

1 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所（国家热带病研究中心）,国家卫生健康委员会寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室,世界卫生组织热带病合作中心,国家级热带病国际联合研究中心,上海 200025
2 上海交通大学医学院-国家热带病研究中心全球健康学院,上海 200025

收稿日期:2020-07-30 修回日期:2020-09-18 出版日期:2021-04-30 发布日期:2021-04-30
通讯作者: 李石柱
作者简介:公衍峰（1994-）,男,硕士研究生,从事流行病学研究。E-mail: peak_gong@163.com
基金资助:
国家传染病重大专项(2016ZX10004222-004);国家科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY101203)

Ecological niche modeling-based prediction on transmission risk of visceral leishmaniasis in the extension region of Loess Plateau, China

GONG Yan-feng¹(), HU Xiao-kang¹, ZHOU Zheng-bin¹, ZHU Hui-hui¹, HAO Yu-wan¹, WANG Qiang¹, ZHANG Yi¹, LI Shi-zhu¹^,²^,^*()

1 National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research); NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology; WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China
2 School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine; Shanghai 200025, China

Received:2020-07-30 Revised:2020-09-18 Online:2021-04-30 Published:2021-04-30
Contact: LI Shi-zhu
Supported by:
National Special Science and Technology Project for Major Infection Diseases of China(2016ZX10004222-004);Special Foundation of Basic Science and Technology Resources Survey of Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2017FY101203)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的运用生态位组合模型,分析并预测我国黄土高原延伸带山西、河南两省内脏利什曼病传播风险区域分布情况。方法选取2015—2019年山西省、河南省确诊内脏利什曼病病例报告所在地作为分布点,收集气候、地理、社会经济等3类12个环境变量数据和生态区分布结构,构建9种生态位模型,分别为广义线性模型（GLM）、广义可加模型（GAM）、多元自适应样条回归(MARS）、广义推进模型（GBM）、分类树分析（CTA）、柔性判别分析（FDA）、人工神经网络（ANN）、随机森林（RF）和最大熵（MaxEnt）,采用受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）和真实技巧统计值（TSS）等2个评价指标筛选的结果建立组合模型,分析预测山西、河南省内脏利什曼病传播风险分布。结果构建的9种模型结果之间的差异有统计学意义（AUC值,H = 35.742,P < 0.05;TSS值,H = 23.620,P < 0.05）,其中,随机森林（AUC = 0.950,TSS = 0.829）和广义推进模型（AUC = 0.943,TSS = 0.803）的结果优于其他单一模型,组合模型的性能优于单一模型。组合模型预测的山西、河南省内脏利什曼病的传播风险主要分布在燕山-太行山山地落叶阔叶林生态区和汾渭盆地农业生态区。预测的山西省风险区占该省面积的30.30%,可划分为低风险区（12.99%）、中风险区（13.93%）、高风险区（3.37%）,高风险区主要分布在阳泉市中南部、长治市北部、临汾市南部;河南省风险区占该省面积的4.68%,可划分为低风险区（3.51%）、中风险区（0.94%）、高风险区（0.23%）,高风险区主要分布在安阳市西部。结论我国黄土高原延伸带山西、河南省内脏利什曼病传播风险近年来呈散发和局部聚集状态,多重生态位模型具有一定的分析预测能力,可为重点地区防控工作提供科学依据。

关键词: 内脏利什曼病, 黄土高原延伸带, 生态位模型, 传播风险

Abstract:

Objective The ecological niche ensemble model was used to analyze and predict the distribution of transmission risk area of visceral leishmaniasis in Shanxi and Henan Provinces in the extension region of the Loess Plateau. Methods The locations with reported cases of visceral leishmaniasis in Shanxi and Henan Provinces from 2015 to 2019 were selected as the distribution sites, from which nine niche models were constructed based on 12 environmental variables in 3 categories and the distribution structure of ecological areas, including generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), generalized boosted models (GBM), classification tree analysis (CTA), flexible discriminant analysis (FDA), artificial neural networks (ANN), Random Forest (RF), and maximum entropy (MaxEnt). The ensemble model was established based on the area under the curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristic and true skill statistic (TSS). The transmission risk of visceral leishmaniasis was predicted in Shanxi and Henan Provinces. Results The 9 models had statistically significant difference in performance (AUC value, H = 35.742, P < 0.05; TSS value, H = 23.620, P < 0.05), among them, the RF model (AUC = 0.950, TSS = 0.829) and GBM models (AUC = 0.943, TSS = 0.803) performed better than the other single model. The performance of the ensemble model was better than the single model. The transmission risk of visceral leishmaniasis was predicted to be distributed in the Yanshan-Taihang Mountain Deciduous Broad-leaved Forest Ecological Area and the Fen-Wei Basin Agricultural Ecological Area. The risk areas of Shanxi Province accounted for 30.30% of the province’s area, and could be categorized into low-risk (12.99%), medium-risk (13.93%), and high-risk areas (3.37%). The high-risk areas of Shanxi Province were mainly located in the central and southern part of Yangquan City, North of Changzhi City, and South of Linfen City. The risk areas in Henan Province accounted for 4.68% of the Province’s area, and can be divided into the low-risk (3.51%), medium-risk (0.94%), and high-risk areas (0.23%). The high-risk areas of Henan Province were mainly located in the West of Anyang City. Conclusion The transmission risk of visceral leishmaniasis in Shanxi and Henan provinces in the extension region of the Loess Plateau shows a overall scattering and local clustering status in recent years. The ensemble ecological niche model has the potential in analysis and prediction of the disease, being able to provide scientific basis for prevention and control in key areas of leishmaniasis.

Key words: Visceral leishmaniasis, Extension regions of Loess Plateau, Ecological niche modeling, Transmission risk

中图分类号:

R531.6

公衍峰, 胡小康, 周正斌, 朱慧慧, 郝瑜婉, 王强, 张仪, 李石柱. 基于生态位模型预测我国黄土高原延伸带内脏利什曼病的传播风险[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2021, 39(2): 218-225.

GONG Yan-feng, HU Xiao-kang, ZHOU Zheng-bin, ZHU Hui-hui, HAO Yu-wan, WANG Qiang, ZHANG Yi, LI Shi-zhu. Ecological niche modeling-based prediction on transmission risk of visceral leishmaniasis in the extension region of Loess Plateau, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases, 2021, 39(2): 218-225.

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变量分类 Variable classification	变量名 Variable name	含义 Definition	分辨率 Resolution	年份 Year
气候因素 Climatic factor	AAT0	≥ 0 ℃年积温 ≥ 0 ℃ Annual accumulated temperature	500 m	1950—1990
	AAT10	≥ 10 ℃年积温 ≥ 10 ℃ Annual accumulated temperature	500 m	1950—1990
	AR	干燥度Aridity	500 m	1950—1990
	IM	湿润指数Index of moisture	500 m	1950—1990
	AAP	年平均降水量 Average annual precipitation	1 km	2004—2015
	AAT	年平均气温 Average annual temperature	1 km	2004—2015
地理因素 Geographical factor	LF	地貌类型Landform	30 m	2010
	EL	海拔高度Elevation	1 km	2000
	LU	土地利用类型Landuse	1 km	2015
	ANDVI	年度植被指数Annual vegetation index	1 km	2004—2015
社会经济因素 Social and economic factor	GDP	国内生产总值Gross domestic product	1 km	2015
社会经济因素 Social and economic factor	DP	人口密度Density of population	1 km	2015

模型Model	AUC值AUC value	TSS值TSS value
ANN	0.871 ± 0.057	0.677 ± 0.057
CTA	0.860 ± 0.059	0.685 ± 0.059
FDA	0.883 ± 0.055	0.728 ± 0.055
GAM	0.795 ± 0.088	0.601 ± 0.088
GBM	0.943 ± 0.035	0.803 ± 0.035
GLM	0.873 ± 0.098	0.728 ± 0.098
MARS	0.849 ± 0.085	0.648 ± 0.085
MaxEnt	0.813 ± 0.056	0.625 ± 0.056
RF	0.950 ± 0.027	0.829 ± 0.027

变量 Variable	环境变量重要性百分比/% Environmental variable importance percentage/%
变量 Variable	GLM	GBM	GAM	CTA	ANN	MARS	FDA	RF	MaxEnt
AAP	8.1	14.5	10.3	32.4	13.6	13.0	11.8	13.5	2.7
IM	18.4	9.6	9.2	25.1	8.2	11.3	4.1	13.1	1.5
GDP	0.8	4.8	2.6	2.0	6.9	1.2	0	10.3	15.3
EL	17.6	28.7	10.6	23.6	7.7	7.4	13.4	10.2	12.0
AAT	15.1	12.4	16.8	13.0	3.6	26.8	36.0	9.8	23.6
AAT0	10.1	1.5	14.2	0	25.0	13.6	13.2	9.2	0.7
ANDVI	3.3	9.0	4.6	0	0	2.0	3.5	8.5	9.4
AR	9.7	6.3	9.6	0	4.1	9.0	2.0	8.5	1.4
DP	0.7	9.1	2.8	0	4.5	3.8	0	7.8	10.5
AAT10	8.7	3.2	10.9	2.3	23.2	6.4	10.2	6.7	2.0
LF	4.7	1.0	4.2	1.6	2.4	1.6	2.2	2.3	16.4
LU	2.9	0	4.3	0	0.9	3.7	3.6	0.1	4.5

基于生态位模型预测我国黄土高原延伸带内脏利什曼病的传播风险

Ecological niche modeling-based prediction on transmission risk of visceral leishmaniasis in the extension region of Loess Plateau, China

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