基于回顾性重排扫描统计量的血吸虫病重点流行区时空聚集性分析

中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志 ›› 2017, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 68-0.

基于回顾性重排扫描统计量的血吸虫病重点流行区时空聚集性分析

郝瑜婉¹, 薛靖波¹, 徐俊芳², 胡飞³, 张云⁴, 曹淳力¹, 阮瑶¹, 田添¹, 张利娟¹, 许静¹, 林丹丹³, 董毅⁴, 李石柱^1,^*()

1 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所,世界卫生组织热带病合作中心,科技部国家级热带病国际联合研究中心,卫生部寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室,上海200025
2 湖北民族学院,恩施445000
3 江西省寄生虫病防治研究所,南昌330046
4 云南省地方病防治所,大理671000

收稿日期:2015-09-27 出版日期:2017-02-28 发布日期:2017-03-06
通讯作者: 李石柱
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（No. 81101280,81660557,81502858）;国家传染病重大专项（No. 2012ZX10004220, 2012ZX10004-201,2016ZX10004222-004）;高分遥感监测项目（No. 10-Y30B11-9001-14/16）;上海市公共卫生三年行动计划项目（No. GWIV-29,15GWZK0101）;中英全球卫生项目（No. GHSP202708）

Analysis of schistosomiasis prevalence in endemic areas using retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics

Yu-wan HAO¹, Jing-bo XUE¹, Jun-fang XU², Fei HU³, Yun ZHANG⁴, Chun-li CAO¹, Yao RUAN¹, Tian TIAN¹, Li-juan ZHANG¹, Jing XU¹, Dan-dan LIN³, Yi DONG⁴, Shi-zhu LI^1,^*()

1 National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention;WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases;National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Ministry of Science and Technology;Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Ministry of Health, Shanghai 200025, China
2 Hubei University for Nationalities, Enshi 445000, China
3 Jiangxi Provincial Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Nanchang 330046, China
4 Yunnan Institute of Endemic Diseases Control and Prevention, Dali 671000, China

Received:2015-09-27 Online:2017-02-28 Published:2017-03-06
Contact: Shi-zhu LI
Supported by:
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 81101280, 81660557, 81502858), National Major Projects of Infectious Diseases(No. 2012ZX10004220, 2012ZX10004-201, 2016ZX10004222-004), High Resolution Remote Sensing Monitoring Project(No. 10-Y30B11-9001-14/16), The Forth Round of Three-Year Public Health Action Plan of Shanghai, China(No. GWIV-29,15GWZK0101), and The Global Health Project between China and Britain(No. GHSP202708)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的应用空间流行病学方法分析血吸虫病疫情特征,探索回顾性时空重排扫描统计量在湖沼型、山丘型血吸虫病流行区聚集性探测研究中的应用。方法分别收集2009-2014年江西省和2004-2013年云南省的血吸虫感染人群、耕牛和钉螺的疫情资料,进行描述性流行病学分析,并应用回顾性时空重排扫描统计量方法,对江西省和云南省血吸虫病高风险传播区域的时空分布进行空间聚集性分析。结果 2009-2014年江西省人群、耕牛和钉螺的血吸虫感染率均呈逐年下降的趋势,人群和钉螺感染率分别由2009年的0.21%和0.03%下降至2014年的0.01%和0,耕牛感染率从2012年的1.25%下降至2014年的0.12%,其中人群感染率年平均变化百分比（APC）为-47.36%（P < 0.05）;2009-2014年人群、耕牛和钉螺感染率均存在时空分布聚集性,分别探测出3、2和1个聚集区域,均位于环鄱阳湖地区。2004-2013年云南省人群、钉螺和耕牛血吸虫感染率呈逐年下降的趋势,2004年感染率分别为2.49%、0.70%和3.76%,至2013年,人群和钉螺感染率均为0,耕牛感染率下降为0.02%;其中人群感染率APC为-49.17%（P < 0.05）;2004-2013年人群、钉螺和耕牛感染率均存在时空分布聚集性,分别探测出2、6和2个聚集区域。结论 2009-2014年江西省湖沼型和2004-2013年云南省山丘型流行区血吸虫病疫情均呈现下降趋势,回顾性时空重排扫描统计量分析均发现有人群、钉螺和耕牛感染率的聚集性区域,表明可用于分析血吸虫病时空分布特征。

关键词: 血吸虫病, 流行病学特征, 时空聚集性分析

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the characteristics of schistosomasis prevalence by using the spatial epidemiological method, and test the application of retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics in determining mountainous and lake-type endemic areas of schistosomiasis. Methods The data of schistosomasis in humans, cattle and snails in Jiangxi Province during 2009-2014 and in Yunnan Province during 2004-2013 were collected and analyzed. The temporal and spatial distribution of schistosomiasis endemic areas in the two provinces was analyzed with retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics. Results The prevalence of schistosomiasis in residents and Oncomelania snails showed a trend of decline in Jiangxi, from 0.21% and 0.03% in 2009 to 0.01% and zero in 2014. A similar trend was found in cattle, from 1.25% in 2012 to 0.12% in 2014. The average annual percentage change (APC) in residents was -47.36% (P < 0.05). The space-time permutation clustering analysis revealed a temporal and spatial clustering of schistosomiasis prevalence from 2009 to 2014 in residents, cattle, and snails, with 3, 2 and 1 clustering areas, respectively, all distributed in Poyang Lake Region. A similar declining trend of schistosomiasis prevalence was found in residents, snails and cattle in Yunnan during 2004-2013, from 2.49%, 0.70% and 3.76% in 2004 to no infection in residents and snails and 0.02% in cattle in 2013. The APC in residents was -49.17% (P < 0.05). There was a temporal and spatial clustering of schistosomiasis prevalence during 2004-2013 in residents, cattle, and snails, with 2, 2 and 6 clustering areas, respectively. Conclusion A declining trend of schistosomiasis prevalence is shown in lake-type endemic areas in Jiangxi during 2009-2014 and in mountainous endemic areas in Yunnan during 2004-2013. The retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics reveal a clustering of schistosomiasis in humans, cattle, and snails, suggesting its applicability in analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution of schistosomiasis.

Key words: Schistosomiasis, Endemic characteristics, Space-time permutation cluster analysis

中图分类号:

R532.21

郝瑜婉, 薛靖波, 徐俊芳, 胡飞, 张云, 曹淳力, 阮瑶, 田添, 张利娟, 许静, 林丹丹, 董毅, 李石柱. 基于回顾性重排扫描统计量的血吸虫病重点流行区时空聚集性分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2017, 35(1): 68-0.

Yu-wan HAO, Jing-bo XUE, Jun-fang XU, Fei HU, Yun ZHANG, Chun-li CAO, Yao RUAN, Tian TIAN, Li-juan ZHANG, Jing XU, Dan-dan LIN, Yi DONG, Shi-zhu LI. Analysis of schistosomiasis prevalence in endemic areas using retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics[J]. Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases, 2017, 35(1): 68-0.

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组别 Group	聚集区域个数 Clustering areas no.	聚集年份 Year of clustering	聚集中心/° Clustered center/°		聚集半径/km Radius/km	聚集村数 No. village clustered	观察数 No. observed	预期数 No. expected	P值 P value
组别 Group	聚集区域个数 Clustering areas no.	聚集年份 Year of clustering	纬度 Latitude	经度 Longitude	聚集半径/km Radius/km	聚集村数 No. village clustered	观察数 No. observed	预期数 No. expected	P值 P value
江西省Jiangxi Province
人群感染率 Infection rate in humans	3	2009-2011	29.602 215	116.355 126	48.50	432	7 324	1 835.83	< 0.01
		2009-2012	28.749 241	116.491 745	33.14	385	5 817	1 956.07	< 0.01
		2009	28.382 019	115.683 968	4.17	12	96	8.91	< 0.01
耕牛感染率 Infection rate in cattle	2	2012	28.887 190	116.441 978	32.93	365	582	110.60	< 0.01
耕牛感染率 Infection rate in cattle		2012	29.272 600	115.805 360	44.87	327	280	80.37	< 0.01
钉螺感染率 Infection rate in snails	1	2009-2011	29.088 914	116.380 246	60.91	1 014	607	126.07	< 0.01
云南省Yunnan Province
人群感染率 Infection rate in humans	2	2004-2007	25.215 890	100.127 930	29.67	68	37 614	3 220.04	< 0.01
人群感染率 Infection rate in humans		2005	26.791 139	100.693 778	5.78	8	168	89.65	< 0.01
耕牛感染率 Infection rate in cattle	2	2004-2005	25.798 720	100.121 080	8.82	24	925	131.49	< 0.01
耕牛感染率 Infection rate in cattle		2006	26.322 500	99.916 110	33.02	56	1 712	624.93	< 0.01
钉螺感染率 Infection rate in snails	6	2004-2007	26.077 550	99.763 150	25.68	31	5 491	970.65	< 0.01
		2004-2006	25.026 250	100.377 420	6.98	5	524	84.48	< 0.01
		2004-2006	25.823 190	100.144 330	26.80	82	1 304	578.36	< 0.01
		2004-2006	26.500 000	100.350 000	47.92	122	1 075	466.47	< 0.01
		2004-2005	25.298 890	100.114 520	10.20	6	206	97.25	< 0.01
		2005-2006	25.516 230	100.244 730	8.80	12	106	38.22	< 0.01