关键词: 疟疾, 回升, 土地利用, 关系, GIS/RS/GPS

Abstract: Objectives   To study the major ecologic factors influencing the re-emergence of malaria in the areas along the Yellow River and Huai River by analyzing the relationship between the malaria incidence and the land use and cover change (LUCC).  Methods  The data of annual parasite incidence (API) and LUCC in the counties of  Huaiyuan, Yongcheng and Tongbai in 1990-2006 were collected retrospectively. Considering the hysteresis effect of LUCC played on malaria transmission, analysis of LUCC in these counties were conducted based on the data of 1990-1995 and 1996-2000, while the API data in 1996-2000 and 2001-2005 were used to analyze the trends and changes of malaria incidence. The correlation and trend analyses were conducted between LUCC and malaria incidence change in the periods.  Results  The LUCC in 1990-1995 in Tongbai County was significant, being 3 265.79% in the farmland and -90.42% in paddy field. The increase of malaria incidence in Tongbai was also significant in 1996-2000, the change rate was 2 799.70%, showing a positive correlation. The LUCC of other 2 counties in 1990-1995 was -0.27% and -0.78%, respectively, while the rate of malaria incidence change in 1996-2000 was 206.25% and 0.00%. The LUCC of the 2 counties in 1996-2000 was -0.08% and -0.50%, while the rate of malaria incidence change in 2001-2005 was 153.22% and 2 500.00%, respectively. It indicated that there was no significant relationship between malaria re-emergence and LUCC in Huaiyuan and Yongcheng Counties.  Conclusion  It seems that the LUCC shows no significant impact on malaria re-emergence in areas along the Yellow River and Huai River since 2001, though there was a positive correlation between the two in Tongbai County in the late 1990s.

Key words: Malaria, Re-emergence, Land Use and Cover Change, Relationship, GIS/RS/GPS