CHINESE JOURNAL OF PARASITOLOGY AND PARASITIC DISEASES >

2025 , Vol. 43 >Issue 4: 526 - 532

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2025.04.012

ORIGINAL ARTICLES

Trend analysis and forecast of global burden of malaria from 1990 to 2035

  • YANG Guobing ,
  • HE Aiwei ,
  • QIN Yu ,
  • YANG Jian ,
  • WANG Jichun
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  • 1 Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Gansu Academy of Preventive Medical Sciences), Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
    2 Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China

Received date: 2025-02-14

  Revised date: 2025-03-26

  Online published: 2025-10-09

Supported by

Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(21JR11RA182);National Parasite Resource Bank(NPRC-2019-194-30);Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Disease Control Scientific Research and Technology Reserve Project(N241720)

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Abstract

Objective To analyze the trends in global burden of malaria from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the trends in malaria burden from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide a scientific basis for the global malaria control programm. Methods Demographic data, and the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates of malaria were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Database, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of malaria with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), and socio-demographic index (SDI) were extracted. The trends in ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR of malaria from 1990 to 2021 were examined using average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (CI). The global burden due to malaria was projected from 2022 to 2035 with a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, and the trends in ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR of malaria from 2022 to 2035 were analyzed with AAPC and 95%CI. Results Significant declines were observed globally in ASIR [AAPC = -7.25%, 95%CI: (-11.68%, -2.81%)], ASPR [AAPC = -14.42%, 95%CI: (-15.99%, -12.84%)], ASMR [AAPC = -0.06%, 95%CI: (-0.08%, -0.05%), and ASDR [AAPC = -4.86%, 95%CI: (-5.81%, -3.91%)] of malaria from 1990 to 2021. Across different SDI regions, the lowest SDI region demonstrated the most substantial decline in all standardized indicators, with AAPCs of -184.95% [95%CI: (-193.26%, -176.64%)], -253.13% [95%CI: (-256.83%, -249.43%)], -0.75% [95%CI: (-0.82%, -0.68%)], and -65.59% [95%CI: (-69.07%, -62.11%)], respectively. In 2021, the Central sub-Saharan Africa region had the highest malaria ASIR [21 152.56 per 100 000, 95%UI: (16 857.61, 26 956.39) per 100 000] and ASPR [21 328.79 per 100 000, 95%UI: (16 092.29, 28 557.44) per 100 000], whereas Western sub-Saharan Africa had the highest ASMR [106.48 per 100 000, 95%UI: (38.23, 222.04) per 100 000] and ASDR [5 668.41 per 100 000, 95%UI: (2 216.18, 11 127.48) per 100 000]. At the national level, Liberia reported the highest ASIR [27 702.66 per 100 000, 95%UI: (14 565.45, 38 887.49) per 100 000] and ASPR [29 248.89 per 100 000, 95%UI: (13 845.02, 47 808.36) per 100 000]; Burkina Faso had the highest ASMR [173.13 per 100 000, 95%UI: (75.38, 318.49) per 100 000]; and Sierra Leone recorded the highest ASDR [8 940.31 per 100 000, 95%UI: (3 029.75, 17 358.47) per 100 000]. Among different age groups, children under 5 years had the highest number of incident cases (96.303 4 million) and prevalent cases (31.749 million), as well as the highest incidence [14 631.95 per 100 000, 95%UI: (10 175.30, 21 120.91) per 100 000] and prevalence [4 823.86 per 100 000, 95%UI: (4 362.74, 5 361.59) per 100 000]. Globally, malaria ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR showed strong inverse correlations with SDI (r = -0.89, -0.89, -0.87, -0.87, respectively; all P < 0.01). It was projected with the BAPC model that declining trends were seen in ASIR [AAPC = -17.12%, 95%CI: (-17.24%, -16.99%)], ASPR [AAPC = -5.93%, 95%CI: (-6.07%, -5.80%)], ASMR [AAPC = -0.10%, 95%CI: (-0.10%, -0.11%)], and ASDR [AAPC = -9.63%, 95%CI: (-9.65%, -9.62%)] of malaria from 2022 to 2035. Conclusion The global burden of malaria declined continuously from 1990 to 2021, with children under five years of age identified as high-risk populations. Forecasts suggest an overall tendency towards a continued decline in the global burden of malaria from 2022 to 2035.

Key words： Malaria; Burden of disease; Incidence; Prevalence; Mortality; Disability-adjusted life year

Cite this article

YANG Guobing , HE Aiwei , QIN Yu , YANG Jian , WANG Jichun . Trend analysis and forecast of global burden of malaria from 1990 to 2035[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF PARASITOLOGY AND PARASITIC DISEASES, 2025 , 43(4) : 526 -532 . DOI: 10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2025.04.012

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