CHINESE JOURNAL OF PARASITOLOGY AND PARASITIC DISEASES >
Ecological niche modeling-based prediction on transmission risk of visceral leishmaniasis in the extension region of Loess Plateau, China
Received date: 2020-07-30
Revised date: 2020-09-18
Online published: 2021-04-30
Supported by
National Special Science and Technology Project for Major Infection Diseases of China(2016ZX10004222-004);Special Foundation of Basic Science and Technology Resources Survey of Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2017FY101203)
Objective The ecological niche ensemble model was used to analyze and predict the distribution of transmission risk area of visceral leishmaniasis in Shanxi and Henan Provinces in the extension region of the Loess Plateau. Methods The locations with reported cases of visceral leishmaniasis in Shanxi and Henan Provinces from 2015 to 2019 were selected as the distribution sites, from which nine niche models were constructed based on 12 environmental variables in 3 categories and the distribution structure of ecological areas, including generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), generalized boosted models (GBM), classification tree analysis (CTA), flexible discriminant analysis (FDA), artificial neural networks (ANN), Random Forest (RF), and maximum entropy (MaxEnt). The ensemble model was established based on the area under the curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristic and true skill statistic (TSS). The transmission risk of visceral leishmaniasis was predicted in Shanxi and Henan Provinces. Results The 9 models had statistically significant difference in performance (AUC value, H = 35.742, P < 0.05; TSS value, H = 23.620, P < 0.05), among them, the RF model (AUC = 0.950, TSS = 0.829) and GBM models (AUC = 0.943, TSS = 0.803) performed better than the other single model. The performance of the ensemble model was better than the single model. The transmission risk of visceral leishmaniasis was predicted to be distributed in the Yanshan-Taihang Mountain Deciduous Broad-leaved Forest Ecological Area and the Fen-Wei Basin Agricultural Ecological Area. The risk areas of Shanxi Province accounted for 30.30% of the province’s area, and could be categorized into low-risk (12.99%), medium-risk (13.93%), and high-risk areas (3.37%). The high-risk areas of Shanxi Province were mainly located in the central and southern part of Yangquan City, North of Changzhi City, and South of Linfen City. The risk areas in Henan Province accounted for 4.68% of the Province’s area, and can be divided into the low-risk (3.51%), medium-risk (0.94%), and high-risk areas (0.23%). The high-risk areas of Henan Province were mainly located in the West of Anyang City. Conclusion The transmission risk of visceral leishmaniasis in Shanxi and Henan provinces in the extension region of the Loess Plateau shows a overall scattering and local clustering status in recent years. The ensemble ecological niche model has the potential in analysis and prediction of the disease, being able to provide scientific basis for prevention and control in key areas of leishmaniasis.
Yan-feng GONG , Xiao-kang HU , Zheng-bin ZHOU , Hui-hui ZHU , Yu-wan HAO , Qiang WANG , Yi ZHANG , Shi-zhu LI . Ecological niche modeling-based prediction on transmission risk of visceral leishmaniasis in the extension region of Loess Plateau, China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF PARASITOLOGY AND PARASITIC DISEASES, 2021 , 39(2) : 218 -225 . DOI: 10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2021.02.015
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