Abstract: 　Objectives To predict the transmission tendency of malaria at national level by application of geographic information system(GIS) technique. Methods With the assistance of ArcView 3.0a software and its spatial analyst extension, the surface spatial analysis on three natural factors, namely, total growing degree days(TGDD), precipitation and relative humidity, were conducted individually. The map calculation was preformed based on the three factors′ ratio of 5∶3∶2 resulted from the Delphi investigation. Results The individual maps and composition map of TGDD, precipitation and relative humidity were created, respectively, based on the spatial composite model, which were used to predict the transmission tendency of malaria at national level. Conclusion The high risk areas for malaria transmission, predicted by the spatial composite model based on the multilayers of environmental factors, are correlated with the previous reports. This will, therefore, provide information for predicting malaria transmission by multiple factors in a larger area.

Key words: multifactor spatial composition model, malaria, geographic information system