关键词: 疟疾, 预测模型, 稳定性

Abstract: AIM: To establish a forecasting model of GM(1,1) with stable parameters for improving the prediction of malaria incidence. METHOD: Using the RCI.GM(1,1)[i.e.modelling GM(1,1) with rate of case increase] method to replace the direct GM(1,1) method. RESULTS: The RCI.GM(1,1) model increases the stability of parameters and reduces the modelling and forecasting error rates. The output of RCI.GM(1,1) model would not be influenced seriously by slight fluctuation of data.CONCLUSION: The RCI.GM(1,1) model is better than that of GM(1,1) for improving the modelling and predictive value of malaria forecasting model.