关键词: 扫描统计量, 血吸虫病, 时间聚集性, 流行病学

Abstract: Acute schistosomiasis cases from 2001 to 2006 in Guichi District, Chizhou City, Anhui Province, were collected and analyzed by scan statistic method with moving window, central degree approach and circular distribution method in order to detect the temporal clustering of schistosomiasis. The analyzed data provided by the method showed that the temporal clustering of acute schistosomiasis from 2001 to 2003 in Guichi District became more concentrative, and then disperse, resulting in a final disappearance of the clustering in 2006 （LLR=4.14, P>0.05）. The temporal clustering for all cases in the six years detected by scan statistic method was between August to September in 2002 （LLR=18.5， P＜0.01）, which was consistent with the real condition. Whereas the results from the central degree and the circular distribution methods could only provide limited information and were biased in the analysis in 2002, indicating that the scan statistic method with moving window can provide ample information with more robust and credible results.

Key words: Scan statistic, Schistosomiasis, Temporal clustering, Epidemiology