我国2004-2013年疟疾发病率的时间趋势分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的对我国2004-2013年疟疾发病率进行时间趋势分析,阐明我国疟疾发病的趋势。方法应用Joinpoint软件对我国2004-2013年疟疾发病率进行Joinpoint模型分析,并计算年度变化百分比（APC）;同时应用灰色建模系统软件进行灰色关联分析。结果疟疾总发病率的趋势变化联接点是2006年,APC分别为34.8%（P > 0.05）和-37.9%（P < 0.05）;间日疟发病率的趋势变化联接点是2007年,APC分别为14.7%（P < 0.05）和-51.5%（P < 0.05）;恶性疟发病率的趋势变化联接点是2009年,APC分别为-39.6%（P < 0.05）和-25.9%（P > 0.05）;未分型疟疾发病率的趋势变化联接点是2006年,APC分别为31.7%（P > 0.05）和-40.7%（P < 0.05）。间日疟、恶性疟和未分型疟疾的发病率与疟疾总发病率的综合关联度依次为0.887 7、0.625 4、0.844 5。本地疟疾发病率的趋势变化联接点是2008年,APC分别为2.43%（P > 0.05）和-72.89%（P < 0.05）,本地疟疾发病率与疟疾总发病率的综合关联度为0.969 3 结论我国疟疾总发病率、本地疟疾发病率、间日疟发病率和未分型疟疾发病率均呈明显下降趋势。2004-2009年恶性疟发病率呈下降趋势,2009-2013年恶性疟发病率保持平稳。

关键词: 疟疾, 时间趋势分析, Joinpoint模型

Abstract:

Objective To estimate the trend of malaria incidence in China from 2004 to 2013 and clarify the pattern of malaria prevalence. Methods The malaria incidence trend during 2004-2013 was analyzed with the Joinpoint software to calculate the annual percent change (APC). Grey relational analysis was also performed. Results The joinpoint for the overall prevalence of malaria was found in 2006, with APC of 34.8% (P > 0.05) and -37.9%(P < 0.05), respectively. The joinpoint for vivax malaria was found in 2007, with APC of 14.7% (P < 0.05) and -51.5% (P < 0.05), respectively. The joinpoint for falciparum malaria was in 2009, with APC of -39.6% (P < 0.05) and -25.9% (P > 0.05), respectively. The joinpoint for unclassified malaria was in 2006, with APC of 31.7% (P > 0.05) and -40.7% (P < 0.05), respectively. The comprehensive correlation degrees of vivax malaria, falciparum malaria and unclassified malaria incidence with the overall prevalence of 0.887 7, 0.625 4, and 0.844 5, respectively. The joinpoint for indigenous malaria incidence was in 2008, with APC of 2.43% （P > 0.05) and -72.89% (P < 0.05), respectively. The comprehensive correlation degree between indigenous malaria incidence and the overall prevalence was 0.969 3. Conclusion There is a trend of decrease for overall prevalence, as well as for the incidences of indigenous malaria, vivax malaria, and unclassified malaria. The incidence of falciparum malaria was a trend of decrease from 2004 to 2009, but was steady from 2009 to 2013.

Key words: Malaria, Time-series analysis, Joinpoint model

中图分类号:

R531.3

徐俊芳, 夏志贵, 周晓农, 李石柱, 郭孝鹏, 覃思. 我国2004-2013年疟疾发病率的时间趋势分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2017, 35(2): 114-119.

XU Jun-fang, XIA Zhi-gui, ZHOU Xiao-nong, LI Shi-zhu, GUO Xiao-peng, QIN Si. Time-series anaylsis of malaria incidence in China during 2004-2013[J]. Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases, 2017, 35(2): 114-119.

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疟疾类型 Malaria type	联接点Joinpoint			APC值/% APC value/%	APC 95% CI/%		t值 t value	P值 P value
疟疾类型 Malaria type	时间段Period	下接点Upper	上接点Lower	APC值/% APC value/%	下Down	上Up	t值 t value	P值 P value
间日疟Vivax malaria	1	2004	2007	14.7	1.5	29.6	2.9	0.0
	2	2007	2013	-51.5	-57.6	-44.5	-13.8	0.0
恶性疟Falciparum malaria	1	2004	2009	-26.3	-39.6	-10.1	-3.9	0.0
	2	2009	2013	25.9	-5.9	68.3	2.0	0.1
未分型Uncassified	1	2004	2006	31.7	-17.0	109.0	1.5	0.2
	2	2006	2013	-40.7	-50.0	-29.6	-7.8	0.0
合计Total	1	2004	2006	34.8	-15.1	113.9	1.7	0.2
合计Total	2	2006	2013	-37.9	-45.2	-29.5	-9.7	0.0

疟疾类型 Malaria type	联接点Joinpoint			APC值/% APC value	APC 95% CI/%		检验t值 t value	P值 P value
疟疾类型 Malaria type	时间段Period	下接点Upper	上接点Lower	APC值/% APC value	下Down	上Up	检验t值 t value	P值 P value
本地疟疾	1	2004	2008	2.4	-25.8	41.5	0.2	0.9
Local malaria	2	2008	2013	-72.9	-78.4	-65.9	-14.7	0.0

疟疾类型 Malaria typ	相对关联度 Relative relationship degree	绝对关联度 Absolute correlation degree	综合关联度 Comprehensive correlation degree
间日疟Vivax malaria	0.955 4	0.836 3	0.895 9
恶性疟falciparum malaria	0.891 9	0.586 4	0.739 1
未分型Unclassified	0.909 0	0.629 5	0.769 3