关键词: 输入性疟疾, 人口流动, 国际贸易, 风险评估

Abstract:

Objective To explore the cross-border population mobility between China and malaria-endemic countries worldwide under normal conditions and evaluate the risk sources of imported malaria in China to provide a methodological basis for proactive surveillance and early warning of imported malaria. Methods Malaria prevalence data from global 81 malaria-endemic countries in 2019, the data of Chinese customs import and export of goods, and relevant social, economic, and demographic data were collected to constructe gravity model for cross-border population mobility driven by international trade relations, and assess the risk classification of imported malaria from malaria-endemic countries worldwide. Results The 81 malaria-endemic countries are mainly located in Africa (45 countries, accounting for 55.56%) and Asia (17 countries, accounting for 20.99%). Countries with high malaria endemicity are primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. China has trade relationships with all the malaria-endemic countries, accounting for 31.03% of the total trade volume. The model analysis shows that the primary imported malaria risk from countries in central and eastern Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and central-east Latin America. The risk of imported malaria from southern Latin America and Oceania is relatively low. Among the 81 malaria-endemic countries, the three countries with the highest risk of imported malaria to China are India in South Asia, Brazil in South America, and Nigeria in Africa. Conclusion As international exchanges and personnel mobility return to normal, the malaria-endemic countries in central and southern regions of Africa, midwestern Latin America and Southeast Asian are high risk source of imported malaria, thus, it is imperative to exert focusing surveillance and preventive control for the inbound personnel from these risk-regions.

Key words: Imported malaria, Population movement, International trade, Risk assessment