疟疾监测效果评价的新方法──综合指标的建立及其应用

中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志 ›› 1998, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (2): 5-100.

疟疾监测效果评价的新方法──综合指标的建立及其应用

周水森, 汤林华, 钱会霖, 郑香, 罗曼珍

中国预防医学科学院寄生虫病研究所

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:1998-04-30 发布日期:1998-04-30

A NEW METHOD FOR EVALUATING MALARIA SURVEILLANCE EFFECTIVENESSESTABLISHMENT AND APPLICATION OF AN INDEX SYSTEM

Zhou Shuisen, Tang Linhua, Qian Huilin, Zheng Xiang, Luo Manzhen

Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine*

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:1998-04-30 Published:1998-04-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的：建立评价疟疾监测效果的综合指标。方法：用德尔菲（Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ）法由专家对常用效果评价指标进行筛选，以确定主要效果评价指标的权重，进而建立疟疾监测效果指数的计算式。结果：通过专家咨询方式确定主要效果指标的权重（Ｗ），分别为：当地感染的发病率为０．３６、病人检出比例为０．３１和输入继发病例／输入病例为０．３３。得出疟疾监测效果指数（ＭＳＥＩ）＝Σｎｉ＝１Ｘｉ·Ｗｉ。按此式对甲、乙两种方案监测试点进行费用－效果分析，计算所得的得分分别为４８．５６和４５．９３，以致甲方案每取得１分约需乙方案所需费用的４倍。结论：此疟疾监测效果指数较为实际地反映疟疾监测方案的总体效果，适合于不同监测方案费用－效果评价。

关键词: 德尔菲法, 疟疾监测效果指数, 费用－效果分析

Abstract: AIM: To establish a comprehensive index system which is suitable for evaluating the effectiveness of malaria surveillance schemes .METHODS: Delphi method was used to screen the existed effectiveness evaluation indices by experts to determine key indices and weighted coefficients. RESULTS: Three indices, i.e. autochthonous incidence, ratio of cases detected (ROCD) and ratio of introduced/imported cases were selected. Their weighted coefficients were 0.36, 0.31 and 0.33, respectively. An index system nam ed them alaria su rveillance effect iveness index (MSEI) was built up and formulated as 2ni= 1Xi·W i which was applied to study cost-effectiveness of the two malaria surveillance schemes (A and B). According to the formula, theM SEIs in the study areas using the schemes A and B were 48156 and 45193, respectively. However, the cost for increasing a score of MSEI by implementing the scheme A was four times as high as that by implementing the scheme B. CONCLUSION: The MSEI is practicable for evaluating the overall effectiveness of malaria surveillance schemes, especially
in the cost-effectiveness analysis and health-economic evaluation.

Key words: Delphi method, malaria surveillance effectiveness index, cost effectiveness analysis

周水森;汤林华;钱会霖;郑香;罗曼珍. 疟疾监测效果评价的新方法──综合指标的建立及其应用[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 1998, 16(2): 5-100.

ZhouShuisen;TangLinhua;QianHuilin;ZhengXiang;LuoManzhen. A NEW METHOD FOR EVALUATING MALARIA SURVEILLANCE EFFECTIVENESSESTABLISHMENT AND APPLICATION OF AN INDEX SYSTEM[J]. Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases, 1998, 16(2): 5-100.