中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志 ›› 2017, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 489-494.
收稿日期:
2017-04-13
出版日期:
2017-10-30
发布日期:
2018-01-08
通讯作者:
周水森
基金资助:
Tian-mu CHEN, Shao-sen ZHANG, Shui-sen ZHOU*()
Received:
2017-04-13
Online:
2017-10-30
Published:
2018-01-08
Contact:
Shui-sen ZHOU
Supported by:
摘要:
疟疾再传播风险评估对于我国以及已经消除疟疾或正在消除疟疾的国家具有重要的公共卫生意义。现有的再传播风险评估方法主要可归纳为传统风险评估法、生物数学模型法、敏感性-接受性-输入性评估法。本文综述了疟疾再传播风险评估方法及指标参数的研究进展,为我国开展疟疾再传播风险评估提供参考。
中图分类号:
陈田木, 张少森, 周水森. 疟疾再传播风险评估方法与指标参数的研究进展[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2017, 35(5): 489-494.
Tian-mu CHEN, Shao-sen ZHANG, Shui-sen ZHOU. Progress in research on risk assessment approach and parameters for malaria re-emergence[J]. Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases, 2017, 35(5): 489-494.
[1] | World Health Organization.Global Technical Strategy for Malaria 2016-2030[EB/OL].[2017-05-10]. . |
[2] | World Health Organization. A framework for malaria elimination [EB/OL].[2017-05-10]. . |
[3] | Lee YC, Tang CS, Ang LW, et al. Epidemiological characteristics of imported and locally-acquired malaria in Singapore[J]. Ann Acad Med Singap, 2009, 38(10): 840-849. |
[4] | Mali S, Steele S, Slutsker L, et al. Malaria surveillance-United States, 2008[J]. MMWR Surveill Summ, 2010, 59(7): 1-15. |
[5] | Romi R, Sabatinelli G, Majori G.Could malaria reappear in Italy[J]. Emerg Infect Dis, 2001, 7(6): 915-919. |
[6] | Romi R, Boccolini D, Vallorani R, et al. Assessment of the risk of malaria re-introduction in the Maremma plain (Central Italy) using a multi-factorial approach[J]. Malar J, 2012, 11: 98. |
[7] | Danis K, Lenglet A, Tseroni M, et al. Malaria in Greece: historical and current reflections on a re-emerging vector borne disease[J]. Travel Med Infect Dis, 2013, 11(1): 8-14. |
[8] | Bueno-Marí R, Jiménez-Peydró R.Study of the malariogenic potential of Eastern Spain[J]. Trop Biomed, 2012, 29(1): 39-50. |
[9] | Ponçon N, Tran A, Toty C, et al. A quantitative risk assessment approach for mosquito-borne diseases: malaria re-emergence in southern France[J]. Malar J, 2008, 7: 147. |
[10] | Baldari M, Tamburro A, Sabatinelli G, et al. Malaria in Maremma, Italy[J]. Lancet, 1998, 351(9111): 1246-1247. |
[11] | Kampen H, Proft J, Etti S, et al. Individual cases of autochthonous malaria in Evros Province, northern Greece: entomological aspects[J]. Parasitol Res, 2003, 89(4): 252-258. |
[12] | Cuadros J, Calvente MJ, Benito A, et al. Plasmodium ovale malaria acquired in central Spain[J]. Emerg Infect Dis, 2002, 8(12): 1506-1508. |
[13] | Santa-Olalla Peralta P, Vazquez-Torre MC, Latorre-Fandos E, et al.First autochthonous malaria case due to Plasmodium vivax since eradication, Spain, October 2010[J]. Euro Surveill, 2010, 15(41): 19684. |
[14] | Danis K, Baka A, Lenglet A, et al. Autochthonous Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece, 2011[J]. Euro Surveill, 2011, 16(42). |
[15] | Zhou SS, Zhang SS, Zhang L, et al. China’s 1-3-7 surveillance and response strategy for malaria elimination: is case reporting, investigation and foci response happening according to plan?[J]. Infect Dis Poverty, 2015, 4: 55. |
[16] | 周水森, 严俊, 夏志贵, 等. 西藏自治区消除疟疾的机遇、挑战与对策[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2015, 33(6): 425-428. |
[17] | 张丽, 丰俊, 夏志贵. 2013年全国疟疾疫情分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2014, 32(6): 407-413. |
[18] | 张丽, 周水森, 丰俊, 等. 2014年全国疟疾疫情分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2015, 33(5): 319-326. |
[19] | 雷蕾, 买买提江·吾买尔, 李志宏, 等. 输入性疟疾引起继发传播的风险评估研究进展[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2016, 34(5): 468-472. |
[20] | 王晓欢, 张山鹰. 福建省消除疟疾地区重新流行风险指标体系的构建[J]. 中国人兽共患病学报, 2015, 31(11): 1081-1085. |
[21] | 周晓农, 张少森, 徐俊芳, 等. 我国消除疟疾风险评估分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2014, 32(6): 414-418. |
[22] | 周水森, 汤林华. 疟疾监测效果评价的新方法-综合指标的建立及其应用[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 1998, 16(2): 97-100. |
[23] | 屠春雨, 方益荣, 傅利军, 等. 绍兴市正在出现的传染病风险评估[J]. 中国预防医学杂志, 2008, 9(1): 13-17. |
[24] | 周水森, 汤林华. 微小按蚊复合体研究进展[J]. 国外医学寄生虫病分册, 2002, 29(1): 8-13. |
[25] | Al-Ghoury AA, El-Hashimi WK, Abul-Hab J.Epidemiology of malaria and predictions of retransmission in Babylon Governorate, Iraq[J]. East Mediterr Health J, 2006, 12(3-4): 270-279. |
[26] | Byrne NJ, Behrens RH.Airline crews’ risk for malaria on layovers in urban sub-Saharan Africa: risk assessment and appropriate prevention policy[J]. J Travel Med, 2004, 11(6): 359-363. |
[27] | Joshi MS, Lalvani A.‘Home from home’: risk perceptions, malaria and the use of chemoprophylaxis among UK South Asians[J]. Ethn Health, 2010, 15(4): 365-375. |
[28] | Wang D, Li S, Cheng Z, et al. Transmission risk from imported Plasmodium vivax malaria in the China-Myanmar Border Region[J]. Emerg Infect Dis, 2015, 21(10): 1861-1864. |
[29] | Shi B, Liu J, Zhou XN, et al. Inferring Plasmodium vivax transmission networks from tempo-spatial surveillance data[J]. PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2014, 8(2): e2682. |
[30] | 郭绍华. 西藏察隅县按蚊优势蚊种及其传疟潜能研究[D]. 中国疾病预防控制中心, 2012. |
[31] | Ceccato P, Vancutsem C, Klaver R, et al. A vectorial capacity product to monitor changing malaria transmission potential in epidemic regions of Africa[J]. J Trop Med, 2012, 2012: 595948. |
[32] | Webb EL, Jachowski NRA, Phelps J, et al. Deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta and the conservation implications of an internationally-engaged Myanmar[J]. Global Environ Change, 2014, 24: 321-333. |
[33] | Foley DH, Klein TA, Kim HC, et al. Malaria risk assessment for the Republic of Korea based on models of mosquito distribution[J]. US Army Med Dep J, 2008: 46-53. |
[34] | Qian YJ, Zhang L, Xia ZG, et al. Preparation for malaria resurgence in China: approach in risk assessment and rapid response[J]. Adv Parasitol,2014, 86: 267-288. |
[35] | Zhang HW, Liu Y, Zhang SS, et al. Preparation of malaria resurgence in China: case study of vivax malaria re-emergence and outbreak in Huang-Huai Plain in 2006[J]. Adv Parasitol, 2014, 86: 205-230. |
[36] | Hillman AL, Yu J, Abbott MB, et al. Rapid environmental change during dynastic transitions in Yunnan Province, China[J]. Quat Sci Rev, 2014, 98: 24-32. |
[37] | Wang X, Zhou G, Zhong D, et al. Life-table studies revealed significant effects of deforestation on the development and survivorship of Anopheles minimus larvae[J]. Parasit Vectors, 2016, 9(1): 323. |
[38] | 尹授钦, 夏尚, 周兴武, 等. 云南省边境地区疟疾传播风险评估[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2016, 34(3): 255-260. |
[39] | Zhou XN, Xia ZG, Wang RB, et al. Feasibility and roadmap analysis for malaria elimination in China[J]. Adv Parasitol, 2014, 86: 21-46. |
[40] | 孟玲, 王哲, 任婧寰, 等. 云南省普洱市景谷傣族彝族自治县地震灾区重点传染病及突发公共卫生事件快速风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(2): 108-112. |
[41] | 钱颖骏, 李石柱, 徐俊芳, 等. 气候变化对血吸虫病与疟疾传播影响的适应政策指标的建立[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2013, 31(6): 433-437. |
[42] | Bitoh T, Fueda K, Ohmae H, et al. Risk analysis of the re-emergence of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Japan using a stochastic transmission model[J]. Environ Health Prev Med, 2011, 16(3): 171-177. |
[43] | Linard C, Ponçon N, Fontenille D, et al. Risk of malaria reemergence in southern France: testing scenarios with a multiagent simulation model[J]. Ecohealth, 2009, 6(1): 135-147. |
[44] | Bray RS, Garnham PC.The life-cycle of primate malaria parasites[J]. Br Med Bull, 1982, 38(2): 117-122. |
[45] | Jeffery GM, Young MD, Eyles DE.The treatment of Plasmodium falciparum infection with chloroquine, with a note on infectivity to mosquitoes of primaquine- and pyrimethamine-treated cases[J]. Am J Hyg, 1956, 64(1): 1-11. |
[46] | Oh MD, Shin H, Shin D, et al. Clinical features of vivax malaria[J]. Am J Trop Med Hyg, 2001, 65(2): 143-146. |
[47] | Nacher M, Silachamroon U, Singhasivanon P, et al. Risk factors for Plasmodium vivax gametocyte carriage in Thailand[J]. Am J Trop Med Hyg, 2004, 71(6): 693-695. |
[48] | Fujita K, Tian CT, Nishina T, et al. Modeling of re-emerging Plasmodium vivax in the Northern area of the Republic of Korea based on a mathematical model[J]. J Fac Environ Sci and Tech, Okayama Univ, 2006, 11(1): 1-7. |
[49] | Muller G, Grébaut P, Gouteux JP.An agent-based model of sleeping sickness: simulation trials of a forest focus in southern Cameroon[J]. C R Biol, 2004, 327(1): 1-11. |
[50] | Longini IM Jr, Nizam A, Xu S, et al. Containing pandemic influenza at the source[J]. Science, 2005, 309(5737): 1083-1087. |
[51] | Yang Y, Sugimoto JD, Halloran ME, et al. The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus[J]. Science, 2009, 326(5953): 729-733. |
[52] | Halloran ME, Ferguson NM, Eubank S, et al. Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States[J]. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 2008, 105(12): 4639-4644. |
[53] | Linard C, Ponçon N, Fontenille D, et al. A multi-agent simulation to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in southern France[J]. Ecol Model, 2009, 220(2): 160-174. |
[54] | Torres-Sorando L, Rodríguez DJ.Models of spatio-temporal dynamics in malaria[J]. Ecol Model, 1997, 104(2): 231-240. |
[55] | 何登贤, 许政拱, 叶奕英, 等. 微小按蚊和巴拉巴按蚊对间日疟原虫、 恶性疟原虫易感性的比较研究[J]. 广西医学院学报, 1982(2): 8-13. |
[56] | 李锦辉, 郭传坤, 李凤文, 等.大劣按蚊对越南株间日疟原虫易感性的初步实验观察[J]. 中国公共卫生学报, 1996(4): 217. |
[57] | 李凤文, 王槐芳, 李锦辉, 等. 广西微小按蚊和中华按蚊对海南株间日疟原虫易感性研究[J]. 中国寄生虫病防治杂志, 1999, 12(2): 143-144. |
[58] | 何登贤, 许政拱, 叶奕英, 等. 微小按蚊和大劣按蚊对间日疟原虫和恶性疟原虫易感性的实验研究[J]. 寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 1983, 1(2): 83-87. |
[59] | 许政拱, 叶奕英, 何登贤, 等. 广西中华按蚊对间日疟原虫和恶性疟原虫易感性的实验观察[J]. 广西医学院学报, 1985(2): 9-11, 16. |
[60] | 俞渊, 叶奕英, 彭小妹, 等. 两型微小按蚊对间日疟原虫易感性的实验比较[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 1987, 5(1): 70. |
[61] | 李菊林, 周华云, 沈宝祥. 中华按蚊和嗜人按蚊对间日疟原虫的易感性观察[J]. 中国血吸虫病防治杂志, 1996, 8(4): 250. |
[62] | 朱锦. 思茅地区中华按蚊对间日疟原虫易感性的观察[J]. 中国寄生虫病防治杂志, 1993, 6(2): 109. |
[63] | 郑煜煌, 刘多, 谢长松, 等. 长沙、 上海、 郑州、 武汉中华按蚊对慈利、 沔阳间日疟原虫易感性的交叉对比[J]. 湖南医学院学报, 1986, 11(4): 337-340. |
[64] | Zhu G, Xia H, Zhou H, et al. Susceptibility of Anopheles sinensis to Plasmodium vivax in malarial outbreak areas of central China[J]. Parasit Vectors, 2013, 6: 176. |
[65] | 周华云, 朱国鼎, 李菊林, 等. 不同地理株嗜人按蚊对间日疟原虫的易感性[J]. 中国血吸虫病防治杂志, 2008, 20(4): 265-268. |
[66] | Garrett-Jones C.Prognosis for interruption of malaria transmission through assessment of the mosquito′s vectorial capacity[J]. Nature, 1964, 204(4964): 1173-1175. |
[67] | Garrett-Jones C, Grab B.The assessment of insecticidal impact on the malaria mosquito′s vectorial capacity, from data on the proportion of parous females[J]. Bull World Health Organ, 1964, 31: 71-86. |
[68] | Mitchell SN, Kakani EG, South A, et al. Mosquito biology. evolution of sexual traits influencing vectorial capacity in anopheline mosquitoes[J]. Science, 2015, 347(6225): 985-988. |
[69] | Kamali M, Xia A, Tu Z, et al. A new chromosomal phylogeny supports the repeated origin of vectorial capacity in malaria mosquitoes of the Anopheles gambiae complex[J]. PLoS Pathog, 2012, 8(10): e1002960. |
[70] | Turner BL 2nd, Kasperson RE, Matson PA, et al.A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science[J]. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 2003, 100(14): 8074-8079. |
[71] | Kienberger S, Hagenlocher M.Spatial-explicit modeling of social vulnerability to malaria in East Africa[J]. Int J Health Geogr, 2014, 13: 29. |
[72] | Bizimana JP, Kienberger S, Hagenlocher M, et al. Modelling homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda[J]. Geospat Health, 2016, 11(1 Suppl): 404. |
[73] | Onyango EA, Sahin O, Awiti A, et al. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa[J]. Malar J, 2016, 15(1): 551. |
[74] | Gomes E, Capinha C, Rocha J, et al. Mapping risk of malaria transmission in mainland Portugal using a mathematical modelling approach[J]. PLoS One, 2016, 11(11): e0164788. |
[1] | 王蓉, 徐洁, 朱晓彤. 疟原虫有性生殖传播阻断疫苗的研究进展[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2024, 42(3): 399-406. |
[2] | 杨和仙, 黄东升, 聂凡刚. 云南省保山市2023年疟疾疫情及防控措施分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2024, 42(3): 418-420. |
[3] | 张丽, 夏志贵. 2023年全国疟疾疫情特征分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2024, 42(2): 135-139. |
[4] | 许艳, 王龙江, 孔祥礼, 李曰进, 卜灿灿, 闫歌, 张本光, 王用斌. 2017—2022年山东省输入性疟疾流行病学特征[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2024, 42(2): 140-146. |
[5] | 文静, 郭明权, 张蓓, 张腾飞, 潘帅, 孙丹凤, 戚伟强. 2012—2022年上海市公共卫生临床中心输入性疟疾病例流行病学分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2024, 42(2): 147-152. |
[6] | 易佳, 吴冬妮, 董小蓉, 朱红, 林文, 张聪, 孙凌聪. 湖北省消除疟疾前后输入性疟疾实验室检测能力分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2024, 42(2): 177-181. |
[7] | 何伊莎, 谢朝勇, 王毓, 李燕菁. 南京市新型冠状病毒感染疫情暴发前后输入性疟疾流行特征及病例诊断分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2024, 42(2): 267-271. |
[8] | 朱民, 张浩, 吴立明, 张宸罡, 张耀光, 王真瑜, 陈健, 吴寰宇, 陈昕. 上海市消除疟疾后输入性疟疾监测响应系统实施与成效分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2024, 42(1): 91-97. |
[9] | 张玺, 茹丝丝, 龙绍蓉, 刘若丹, 姜鹏, 崔晶, 王中全. 迭宫属绦虫的分类学研究进展[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2024, 42(1): 98-104. |
[10] | 周欣, 黄翠兰. 抗阴道毛滴虫靶点及药物研究进展[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2024, 42(1): 105-110. |
[11] | 李春燕, 张福艳, 史鹏, 田丰源. 2011—2023年四川省自贡市输入性疟疾疫情分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2024, 42(1): 129-133. |
[12] | 杨硕, 夏尚, 闫书宁, 薛靖波, 史本云, 郝瑜婉, 李梦茹, 梁家瑞, 夏志贵, 郑彬. 基于国际贸易关系的我国输入性疟疾风险来源分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2023, 41(6): 744-748. |
[13] | 龚艳凤, 李紫芬, 唐乖, 黄美琴, 周炳华, 胡强. 2015—2022年江西省疟疾疫情特征分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2023, 41(5): 586-592. |
[14] | 陈瑶, 张本光. 异尖属线虫分类学研究进展[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2023, 41(4): 480-485. |
[15] | 耿燕, 兰子尧, 李杨, 戴佳芮, 蔡姗, 卢丽丹, 黄雨婷, 师伟芳, 佘丹娅. 2017—2021年贵州省疟疾疫情分析[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2023, 41(3): 384-388. |
阅读次数 | ||||||
全文 |
|
|||||
摘要 |
|
|||||