生态位模型及其在寄生虫病传播风险研究中的应用

doi:10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2020.02.017

中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志 ›› 2020, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 238-244.doi: 10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2020.02.017

生态位模型及其在寄生虫病传播风险研究中的应用

胡小康, 夏尚, 郭云海, 郝瑜婉, 薛靖波, 吕山, 许静, 李石柱^*()

中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所,国家热带病研究中心,世界卫生组织热带病合作中心,科技部国家级热带病国际联合研究中心,卫生部寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室,上海 200025

收稿日期:2019-04-30 出版日期:2020-04-30 发布日期:2020-05-11
通讯作者: 李石柱
作者简介:胡小康（1993-）,男,硕士研究生,从事寄生虫病流行病学研究。E-mail: guyuexihe@163.com
基金资助:
国家传染病重大专项(2016ZX10004222-004)

Ecological niche modeling and its applications in research on transmission risks of parasitic diseases

Xiao-kang HU, Shang XIA, Yun-hai GUO, Yu-wan HAO, Jing-bo XUE, Shan LV, Jing XU, Shi-zhu LI^*()

National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; National Center for Tropical Diseases Research; WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Ministry of Science and Technology; Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Ministry of Health, Shanghai 200025, China

Received:2019-04-30 Online:2020-04-30 Published:2020-05-11
Contact: Shi-zhu LI
Supported by:
Supported by the National Special Science and Technology Project for Major Infectious Diseases of China(2016ZX10004222-004)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生态位模型是利用物种分布数据和相关环境变量,根据一定的算法建模分析物种生态需求,以预测不同时空下物种的实际分布和潜在分布。生态位建模方法越来越多地应用于传染病传播风险的预测研究,然而对其准确合理地运用需建立在理解生态位建模基本原理和特点的基础上。本文基于寄生虫病传播风险研究的角度,从生态位概念出发介绍了生态位模型的理论基础、数据获取与变量选择、模型算法、模型性能的评价手段及其在寄生虫病传播风险研究中的应用。

关键词: 生态位模型, 寄生虫病, 传播风险

Abstract:

Ecological niche modeling is developed based on geographic distribution data and associated environmental variables of the species in concern by applying algorithmic approaches to analyze the niche requirements of the species, for predicting the actual and potential distributions of a particular species under different spatiotemporal conditions. Ecological niche modeling is becoming more and more popular in research predicting the transmission risks of infectious diseases. However, the accurate and rational use of the niche modeling relies on fully understanding of the basic principles and characteristics of the modeling. From the view point of studying risks of parasitic diseases transmission, and the concept of ecological niche, this review introduces essential aspects of the ecological niche modeling including the theoretical basis, data collection and variables selection, modeling algorithm, approaches to evaluate the modeling property, and its applications in predicting transmission risks of parasitic diseases.

Key words: Ecological niche modeling, Parasitic diseases, Transmission risk

中图分类号:

胡小康, 夏尚, 郭云海, 郝瑜婉, 薛靖波, 吕山, 许静, 李石柱. 生态位模型及其在寄生虫病传播风险研究中的应用[J]. 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志, 2020, 38(2): 238-244.

Xiao-kang HU, Shang XIA, Yun-hai GUO, Yu-wan HAO, Jing-bo XUE, Shan LV, Jing XU, Shi-zhu LI. Ecological niche modeling and its applications in research on transmission risks of parasitic diseases[J]. Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases, 2020, 38(2): 238-244.

图/表 1

参考文献 78

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应用模型	研究对象	研究区域	发表年份	第一作者及参考文献
Maxent	静斑虻Chrysops silacea 分斑虻C. dimidiata	中非和西非	2019	Badia-Rius X^[38]
	藁杆双脐螺B. straminea	全球	2018	Yang Y^[39]
	湖北钉螺O. hupensis	湖北省	2017	汤阳^[40]
	内脏利什曼病	孟加拉国	2017	Abdullah AYM^[41]
	菲氏双脐螺B. pfeifferi	东非	2016	Stensgaard AS^[42]
	疟疾及其蚊媒	南美洲北部	2015	Alimi TO^[43]
	恶毒白蛉P. perniciosus	意大利东北部	2014	Signorini M^[44]
	三种淡水螺类	津巴布韦	2014	Pedersen UB^[45]
GARP	福寿螺P. canaliculata	中国	2018	王奕晨^[46]
	福寿螺P. canaliculata	中国	2016	张海涛^[47]
	黄背罗蛉Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata	南美洲	2015	Carvalho BM^[48]
GLM	广州管圆线虫A. cantonensis	夏威夷群岛	2019	Kim JR^[49]
GLM	黄背罗蛉	南美洲	2015	Carvalho BM^[48]
BRT	广州管圆线虫A. cantonensis	夏威夷群岛	2019	Kim JR^[49]
BRT	恶性疟原虫蚊媒	南美洲	2015	Laporta GZ^[50]
RF	淋巴丝虫病	尼日利亚	2018	Eneanya OA^[51]
RF	黄背罗蛉L. (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata	南美洲	2015	Carvalho BM^[48]
BIOCLIM	福寿螺P. canaliculata	中国	2016	张海涛^[47]
BIOCLIM	黄背罗蛉L. (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata	南美洲	2015	Carvalho BM^[48]
DOMAIN	福寿螺	中国	2016	张海涛^[47]
DOMAIN	黄背罗蛉	南美洲	2015	Carvalho BM^[48]

生态位模型及其在寄生虫病传播风险研究中的应用

Ecological niche modeling and its applications in research on transmission risks of parasitic diseases

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